Weekend Outlook Chat (March 11 - 13)

Jason: I wasn't that shocked that Pacifier beat out Be Cool last weekend. But I didn't imagine it would crack $30 million.

Lee: The gross was identical to Bringing Down the House (Opening Weekend: $31.1 million), which was the director's previous movie. You shouldn't under-estimate the power of Disney marketing, which I kind of did. Disney manages to sell their movies with a certain punch that other studios can't manage. But I think a lot of people like Vin Diesel, and liked that he was taking on lighter fare. It wasn't like Eddie Murphy where his career was being questioned by the time of Daddy Day Care, even though the debuts were similar.

Jason: It was definitely a smart move on his part. Your Willard-Jacket comparison was also pretty accurate. For this weekend, why do you think Robots will top Shark Tale's weekend gross?

Lee: The footage I've seen is more epic than Shark Tale ($47.6 million), and it has been advertised for about a month longer than Shark Tale. The visual effects in some of the clips make me think of I, Robot ($52.2 million).

Jason: How do you think Robot's advertising compares with Ice Age ($46.3 million)?

Lee: Shark Tale had the benefit of Shrek 2 spots, but I think there is more awe behind this.

Jason: The animation does look more impressive than Shark Tale or Ice Age. But I don't know if the advertising is on par with either.

Lee: For a while I thought Robots lacked that lovable squirrel from the Ice Age campaign, and I didn't think appeal was going to be up to that level. But here there's a visual eye candy that Ice Age didn't offer. And Robin Williams gives this an edge, along with the Star Wars 3 trailer attached. Even though it's mostly going to be the online film buffs who are aware of the trailer.

Jason: The studios really like clashing their CGI release dates. Incredibles comes out on DVD this week. DreamWorks did that with Pixar's releases.

Lee: The Incredibles ($70.5 million) targeted nearly everyone ? Disney/Pixar is damn good with getting various demographics in. But I don't think this is going to have quite the appeal amongst 20 ? 30-year olds like that did, which will bite into its sales a little bit.

Jason: I was looking at the predictions for Shark Tale and The Incredibles and just about everyone over-predicted Shark Tale. All the predictions were close, but consistently high, and the same thing goes for The Incredibles predictions. I think that there's a slight upward bias in predictions ever since Shrek 2 shocked everyone.

Lee: Fox hasn't proven that they can give Pixar a run for their money yet, and that can change, but it doesn't look like the entertainment value is there for everyone. I will admit that it looks a little better than Shark Tale, but I still think the visuals are going to be the only intriguing aspect. Robin Williams is there, but if his part were actually funny, you'd think they'd show some highlights, and you could get 20 - 30 year olds in there if he was funny in the ads.

Jason: Like I was telling you before, it's a bit worrisome to see fake reviews highlighted in commercials. When the same reviewer who loves Hostage (something on the lines of, "Best Bruce Willis movie since Die Hard") says Robots is "More incredible than The Incredibles," you have to wonder.


Lee: Fox is trying to be as cool as Pixar.

Jason: Exactly, but don't use Wireless Magazine quotes.

Lee: Nobody cares if it's some magazine people go "what?" to. And it's even questionable how many people truly care when it's someone credible. Usually the ads just speak for themselves.

Jason: I'm saying it's more of an ethical problem with me than a problem with the targeted audience. The reviews aren't that bad though on Rotten Tomatoes.

Lee: I've seen billboards around town and Fox is using the same marketing tactic as Disney and Pixar for their films, with cute little statements revolving around characters: like Coils Just Want to Have Fun.

Jason: I didn't realize Shark Tale received such negative reviews. I'm expecting mid-$40's for Robots.

Lee: I'm at $50. But part of me says Shark Tale too.

Jason: I just checked WSEX: $43 for Robots, and $9 for Hostage. I think Shark Tale is a good comparison for the first weekend. Ice Age would translate to around $51 in 2005 dollars. I don't think Robots has the same appeal needed to get that opening weekend level.

Lee: That's the thing that opposes my prediction. Ice Age had a memorable campaign. Its teaser trailer is probably one of the best ones around.

Jason: People really loved that teaser. Robots looks visually impressive, but the trailer is a bit flat. Blue Sky hasn't really reached the same level as DreamWorks and Pixar in terms of memorable characters and stories.

Lee: I've seen a ton of commercials for Hostage, which could be a sign of weakness. It's like they're trying too hard to get attention with in-your-face ads.

Jason: I don't know if that's a great way to spot weakness; however, I agree that it looks like a weak opening.

Lee: I remember I saw a lot of commercials for The Whole Nine Yards too, and that did $13.8, but I think this movie is more straightforward.

Jason: The reviews have been poor, the release date was moved back, and the theater count is weak for a wide release. It?s like Assault on Precinct 13 ($6.5 million) redux.

Lee: To quote the fake Wireless Magazine source, if it's "The best Bruce Willis movie since Die Hard,? you'd have a potential 3000 theater count, not just 2123 theaters.

Jason: His reviews are basically just marketing gimmicks.

Lee: I was originally at Precinct 13 box office, but I think Willis adds a little appeal. To me it looks like Cellular ($10.1 million - $3,674/screen in 2,749 theaters) minus 600 theaters. And this doesn?t have the ad-campaign that that did. And this is R-rated, whereas Cellular was PG-13.

Jason: You'd expect Bruce Willis to carry more box office weight than Ethan Hawke.

Lee: And there's something about having Miramax behind it that makes me look down on it.

Jason: I think Miramax was hoping for a hyped up Panic Room ($30.1 million).

Lee: Panic Room had an ideal setup. The story involved one of the worst fears amongst grownups.

Jason: Having your family kidnapped isn't a "worst fear"?

Lee: Well the ads for Panic Room made it look terrifying. This looks like a by-the-numbers thriller for teens. Panic Room also brought back Jodie Foster. I wouldn?t say this is exactly ?bringing back? Bruce Willis.

Jason: So what is preventing Hostage from opening to Precinct 13 or The Whole Ten Yards levels? Precinct 13 looked more promising to me.

Lee: I think Willis gives it the edge, but the R-rating will create a question in that regard. And Whole Nine Yards was a good duo. The ads for Whole Ten Yards sucked, and I think a lot of people can agree on that. The ads for this aren?t as bad, but that also had 2,654 theaters. I would say $7 - 8 million.

Jason: Anything that could help it surprise on the upside? Lots of people who can?t rent Die Hard decide to go?

Lee: It does have a little bit in common with Twisted ($8.9 million) in showing off a lot of plot points in the ads, but it also had 2,703 theaters. It was a by-the-numbers story, just like how Hostage looks. Twisted was slanted older, though. I can't really imagine too many adults wanting to see this. It looks like it?s geared more for the 17 - 25 group.

Jason: I can't think of much beyond Bruce Willis + Action. And Bruce Willis really hasn't delivered recently. I suppose Tears of the Sun ($17.1 million) could be considered a successful opening.

Lee: Without Bruce Willis, Miramax might've sent it straight to video, and they?ve sent some of their features to video.

Jason: I suppose the other positive factor might be that action movies usually do well up against big CGI family movies.

Lee: I suppose it's also similar to The Negotiator ($10.3 million), but that might have also benefited from summer. And I would think WB is a better marketing source than Miramax with these.

Jason: Miramax is good with Oscars. Seeing their name on an action movie is a cause for concern. Actually, I'll take that back: Kill Bill and Once Upon a Time in Mexico.

Lee: That was Tarantino and Robert Rodriguez, though. They have built-in cult crowds.

Jason: As opposed to Florent Siri making his US debut.

Lee: What are you predicting for Hostage?

Jason: I was going to say $6.5, but Precinct opened on a Wed, and for what it's worth Willis should have more appeal than Hawke. But I guess that's only worth $500K in my mind, so $7.