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Craig Younkin
Friday Box Office Analysis (2/25)
By Lee Tistaert Published February 26, 2005
Diary of a Mad Black Woman repeated the feat of Barbershop in surprising on the upside.
I will admit that we were biased in the Weekend Outlook Chat in knowing very little about Diary of a Mad Black Woman (and my comparison to Never Die Alone was indeed strange for what genre this is). I received an email from a site visitor who felt the buzz on the movie had been coming for a while. And it seems to be a smaller-scale repeat of The Passion of the Christ in that there?s a large underground fan base that a lot of people weren?t aware of. I was informed that writer/director/star Tyler Perry is a sensation amongst many African Americans, and his plays have sold out in LA and NY for years.
Diary of a Mad Black Woman repeated the feat of Barbershop ($6.8 million - $4,242 per-screen) in surprising on the upside, delivering an astonishing $7.1 million in just 1,483 theaters for a $4,811 per-screen average. The figure is astounding considering the strong ensemble cast that comedy offered in comparison. And Mad Black Woman was also more in the realm of How Stella Got Her Groove Back ($4.0 million Friday - $2,879 per-screen) and Waiting to Exhale ($14.1 million weekend - $11,274 per-screen) in terms of plot.
I felt the ads somewhat resembled Double Jeopardy in the sense of glorifying an affair (compared to a murder setup) that ruined a marriage, and giving adult women a female character to cheer on. There are few movies in a year built toward this demographic to begin with, and this was running on a jackpot story that its crowd can relate to. However, advance tickets early in the week had been booming for opening day shows, and so there might be a rush factor. In the worst case scenario, Diary of a Mad Black Woman could fall to roughly $6.0 million on Saturday, or it could jump in the low-10% range ala the Bridget Jones?s Diary sequel. The movie is on course for an $18 - 20 million weekend, and will face off with Hitch for the number one spot.
Breaking the horror movie trend of 2005, Cursed came in with just modest results, grossing $3.8 million in ticket sales for a $1,345 average in 2,805 theaters. The per-screen average was nearly identical to that of Wes Craven?s They ($2.1 million - $1,323 per-screen), although it should be said that the filmmaker was barely even involved with that entry (it was a marketing ploy). Cursed lacked a strong ad-campaign, as this year?s horror successors, Boogeyman and Hide and Seek, had been given ad exposure ever since the fall of 2004. Rumor also has it that Dimension Films was not happy with Craven?s first cut of Cursed, and they stepped in to make big changes ? signs that usually don?t point toward a sturdy box office finish.
The debut was also in line with Ghost Ship, which delivered $4.1 million and $1,467 per-screen, and the per-screen average of Seed of Chucky ($3.0 million - $1,438/screen in 2,061 theaters). There?s the possibility Cursed could drop on Saturday, but given the second day jumps ranging from 11 - 18% for Cabin Fever, Ghost Ship, and Seed of Chucky, it may very well have a chance to flourish. A weekend gross of roughly $10.5 million seems to be in order.
Tommy Lee Jones witnessed his softest debut in years, as the silly comedy, Man of the House, turned in a decent $3.1 million for $1,263 per-screen. Jones, whose previous entry, The Hunted, opened to $4.5 million ($1,779 per-screen), was evidently cast here to make up for a deficiency (in appeal). Sony?s ad-campaign also started rather abruptly (like Spanglish?s campaign), and though there were comparisons to The Replacements ($3.6 million - $1,317 per-screen), even that comedy boasted a slightly brawnier cast. A second day jump in the mid-20% range to low 30?s is possible, which should give Man of the House around $9.0 million for the weekend frame.
Diary of a Mad Black Woman repeated the feat of Barbershop ($6.8 million - $4,242 per-screen) in surprising on the upside, delivering an astonishing $7.1 million in just 1,483 theaters for a $4,811 per-screen average. The figure is astounding considering the strong ensemble cast that comedy offered in comparison. And Mad Black Woman was also more in the realm of How Stella Got Her Groove Back ($4.0 million Friday - $2,879 per-screen) and Waiting to Exhale ($14.1 million weekend - $11,274 per-screen) in terms of plot.
I felt the ads somewhat resembled Double Jeopardy in the sense of glorifying an affair (compared to a murder setup) that ruined a marriage, and giving adult women a female character to cheer on. There are few movies in a year built toward this demographic to begin with, and this was running on a jackpot story that its crowd can relate to. However, advance tickets early in the week had been booming for opening day shows, and so there might be a rush factor. In the worst case scenario, Diary of a Mad Black Woman could fall to roughly $6.0 million on Saturday, or it could jump in the low-10% range ala the Bridget Jones?s Diary sequel. The movie is on course for an $18 - 20 million weekend, and will face off with Hitch for the number one spot.
Breaking the horror movie trend of 2005, Cursed came in with just modest results, grossing $3.8 million in ticket sales for a $1,345 average in 2,805 theaters. The per-screen average was nearly identical to that of Wes Craven?s They ($2.1 million - $1,323 per-screen), although it should be said that the filmmaker was barely even involved with that entry (it was a marketing ploy). Cursed lacked a strong ad-campaign, as this year?s horror successors, Boogeyman and Hide and Seek, had been given ad exposure ever since the fall of 2004. Rumor also has it that Dimension Films was not happy with Craven?s first cut of Cursed, and they stepped in to make big changes ? signs that usually don?t point toward a sturdy box office finish.
The debut was also in line with Ghost Ship, which delivered $4.1 million and $1,467 per-screen, and the per-screen average of Seed of Chucky ($3.0 million - $1,438/screen in 2,061 theaters). There?s the possibility Cursed could drop on Saturday, but given the second day jumps ranging from 11 - 18% for Cabin Fever, Ghost Ship, and Seed of Chucky, it may very well have a chance to flourish. A weekend gross of roughly $10.5 million seems to be in order.
Tommy Lee Jones witnessed his softest debut in years, as the silly comedy, Man of the House, turned in a decent $3.1 million for $1,263 per-screen. Jones, whose previous entry, The Hunted, opened to $4.5 million ($1,779 per-screen), was evidently cast here to make up for a deficiency (in appeal). Sony?s ad-campaign also started rather abruptly (like Spanglish?s campaign), and though there were comparisons to The Replacements ($3.6 million - $1,317 per-screen), even that comedy boasted a slightly brawnier cast. A second day jump in the mid-20% range to low 30?s is possible, which should give Man of the House around $9.0 million for the weekend frame.
