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Box office comparisons - Review: Justice League (C)
Craig Younkin
Weekend Outlook Chat (Feb. 25 - 27)
By Staff of LMI Published February 24, 2005
"The poster is a big rip off of Scream. And it seems like the advertising hasn't been around that long."
Jason: What's with greenlighting sequels three days into a run?
Lee: They know they'll make money, so they might as well get a move on it. And word of mouth seems to be pretty good on Constantine.
Jason: I can understand Hitch 2 plans with such a strong second weekend, but to start Constantine 2 when the weekend numbers were still coming in? I guess there'll definitely be no Mask 3. The budget was around $85 million. I guess that's why it wasn't direct-to-video. Even with your best-case early prediction of $17 million, New Line would have still been in trouble.
Lee: And I'm sure glad I was wrong.
Jason: And it isn't holding up well at all. This weekend has to be one of the weakest batches of movies this year. But horror movies have had so much success, so it will be interesting if Cursed can continue the $20 million opening streak for horror movies. It has the standard Scream-like poster.
Lee: I was originally optimistic about the box office for Cursed, but I'm getting mixed vibes now, and part of the reason is some theaters it's booked at in LA. These bookings don?t really hint toward a Boogeyman weekend. It?s more in line with Darkness Falls ($12.0 million - $4,238 per-screen) and Ghost Ship ($11.5 million - $4,128 per-screen) in that regard. The poster is a big rip off of Scream. And it seems like the advertising hasn't been around that long.
Jason: Yeah, I was going to say that. Boogeyman had a lot better ad saturation.
Lee: I think it was Saw that had a bunch of upcoming horror movie trailers attached. Those movies have done well and Cursed wasn't there. And Boogeyman had a recognizable premise and Sam Raimi's marketing. Cursed sort of has an I Know What You Did Last Summer ($15.8 million - $6,138 per-screen) feeling with the cast and even with the trailer, but I'm starting to get the feeling it's going to get ignored. Is it possible people can get horror'd out?
Jason: I don't think so, but there's a difference in this type of horror. I'm not a horror fan, but some of the scenes look laughably bad. Like there's not even a sense of trying to scare the audience, whereas even Boogeyman?s trailer portrayed a decent scare factor.
Lee: The trailer for Cursed seems to spoil a lot, which can be good and bad. Sometimes people like to know what they're walking into, and sometimes it gives them a reason not to go. They tried to attach Wes Craven's name onto They ($5.2 million - $3,185 per-screen) and that didn't work financially. He was barely even involved and they made it "Wes Craven's They.? Cursed also reminds me of The Faculty ($11.4 million - $4,824 per-screen).
Jason: In that the computer animation is so absurd, that it's silly and not scary?
Lee: Wes Craven is a name more than Kevin Williamson is and Dimension Films is using both of them for marketing. The only real time I've seen the writer being marketed in the ads is for Along Came Polly, because he co-wrote Meet the Parents. Most people don't care who wrote a movie, which could mean it?s a desperate marketing attempt for Cursed. Most people don't even care who directed movies either, but that's another story.
Jason: What about the positives?
Lee: It's opening after a good horror/thriller movie streak.
Jason: It has a decent theater count and a better cast than Boogeyman.
Lee: But lack of 3000 could mean something. It has a better cast than Boogeyman but Boogeyman's advertising had been around since mid Oct.
Jason: Oscar weekend isn't typically that strong, either. Except, I was looking at the top 10 for last year and thinking, wow, you're predicting a huge drop off year-to-year. But of course, what came out last year this weekend?
Lee: The Passion, Twisted, Dirty Dancing 2, and Club Dread.
Jason: The Passion distorts the weekend comparisons. You have the top 5 grossing $69.2 and last year Passion grossed more than that ($83.848 million). I guess this is when 2005 comes in line with 2004.
Lee: What are you going with for Cursed?
Jason: $13 million, but every time I've gone below consensus on horror releases this year, I've been off by a lot.
Lee: It seems Man of the House's ad campaign started at the last second. It reminds me of The Transporter ($9.1 million - $3,540 per-screen) in that regard. And the folks who showed up to Space Cowboys ($18.1 million - $6,451 per-screen) will not be returning to this.
Jason: Yeah, it seems miscast, and it?s like some parody of three different movies.
Lee: Who is it really targeting? It's harder to get older people in with this kind of silly comedy.
Jason: Do you ever go to AMC theaters?
Lee: Yeah.
Jason: They have a fake cheerleading trailer to tell moviegoers to turn off cell phones. When I first saw it, I thought the trailer was for Man of the House.
Lee: The advertising kind of reminds me of Taxi ($12.1 million - $4,008 per-screen), but Man of the House probably won't get kids. It feels like it's in an identity crisis in terms of what demographic they're chasing for. Life or Something Like It ($6.2 million - $2,387 per-screen) was actually in similar waters as Man of the House is, and it?s the same director.
Jason: I remember having that discussion before about another movie. When there's marketing confusion, it's definitely a box office impediment.
Lee: And they put Tommy Lee Jones in there just so that there'd be "some" appeal, even if it?s just modest. Is Cedric the Entertainer ever going to do a good movie? It?s like he has the same stupid role in every single movie.
Jason: The Honeymooners doesn't look any better. He has really typecast himself whether it's in a movie or a commercial.
Lee: Man of the House is like a cross of The Banger Sisters ($10.0 million - $3,664 per-screen) and Mickey Blue Eyes ($10.2 million - $3,955 per-screen) in terms of having a really last minute, light and silly ad campaign. And it?s questionable if this even has the appeal that those did.
Jason: I wouldn't have thought of those movies. So what do you have at this point for it? Sticking with $10?
Lee: $8.5 - 10. I'm starting to sense $12 - 14 coming for Cursed.
Lee: They know they'll make money, so they might as well get a move on it. And word of mouth seems to be pretty good on Constantine.
Jason: I can understand Hitch 2 plans with such a strong second weekend, but to start Constantine 2 when the weekend numbers were still coming in? I guess there'll definitely be no Mask 3. The budget was around $85 million. I guess that's why it wasn't direct-to-video. Even with your best-case early prediction of $17 million, New Line would have still been in trouble.
Lee: And I'm sure glad I was wrong.
Jason: And it isn't holding up well at all. This weekend has to be one of the weakest batches of movies this year. But horror movies have had so much success, so it will be interesting if Cursed can continue the $20 million opening streak for horror movies. It has the standard Scream-like poster.
Lee: I was originally optimistic about the box office for Cursed, but I'm getting mixed vibes now, and part of the reason is some theaters it's booked at in LA. These bookings don?t really hint toward a Boogeyman weekend. It?s more in line with Darkness Falls ($12.0 million - $4,238 per-screen) and Ghost Ship ($11.5 million - $4,128 per-screen) in that regard. The poster is a big rip off of Scream. And it seems like the advertising hasn't been around that long.
Jason: Yeah, I was going to say that. Boogeyman had a lot better ad saturation.
Lee: I think it was Saw that had a bunch of upcoming horror movie trailers attached. Those movies have done well and Cursed wasn't there. And Boogeyman had a recognizable premise and Sam Raimi's marketing. Cursed sort of has an I Know What You Did Last Summer ($15.8 million - $6,138 per-screen) feeling with the cast and even with the trailer, but I'm starting to get the feeling it's going to get ignored. Is it possible people can get horror'd out?
Jason: I don't think so, but there's a difference in this type of horror. I'm not a horror fan, but some of the scenes look laughably bad. Like there's not even a sense of trying to scare the audience, whereas even Boogeyman?s trailer portrayed a decent scare factor.
Lee: The trailer for Cursed seems to spoil a lot, which can be good and bad. Sometimes people like to know what they're walking into, and sometimes it gives them a reason not to go. They tried to attach Wes Craven's name onto They ($5.2 million - $3,185 per-screen) and that didn't work financially. He was barely even involved and they made it "Wes Craven's They.? Cursed also reminds me of The Faculty ($11.4 million - $4,824 per-screen).
Jason: In that the computer animation is so absurd, that it's silly and not scary?
Lee: Wes Craven is a name more than Kevin Williamson is and Dimension Films is using both of them for marketing. The only real time I've seen the writer being marketed in the ads is for Along Came Polly, because he co-wrote Meet the Parents. Most people don't care who wrote a movie, which could mean it?s a desperate marketing attempt for Cursed. Most people don't even care who directed movies either, but that's another story.
Jason: What about the positives?
Lee: It's opening after a good horror/thriller movie streak.
Jason: It has a decent theater count and a better cast than Boogeyman.
Lee: But lack of 3000 could mean something. It has a better cast than Boogeyman but Boogeyman's advertising had been around since mid Oct.
Jason: Oscar weekend isn't typically that strong, either. Except, I was looking at the top 10 for last year and thinking, wow, you're predicting a huge drop off year-to-year. But of course, what came out last year this weekend?
Lee: The Passion, Twisted, Dirty Dancing 2, and Club Dread.
Jason: The Passion distorts the weekend comparisons. You have the top 5 grossing $69.2 and last year Passion grossed more than that ($83.848 million). I guess this is when 2005 comes in line with 2004.
Lee: What are you going with for Cursed?
Jason: $13 million, but every time I've gone below consensus on horror releases this year, I've been off by a lot.
Lee: It seems Man of the House's ad campaign started at the last second. It reminds me of The Transporter ($9.1 million - $3,540 per-screen) in that regard. And the folks who showed up to Space Cowboys ($18.1 million - $6,451 per-screen) will not be returning to this.
Jason: Yeah, it seems miscast, and it?s like some parody of three different movies.
Lee: Who is it really targeting? It's harder to get older people in with this kind of silly comedy.
Jason: Do you ever go to AMC theaters?
Lee: Yeah.
Jason: They have a fake cheerleading trailer to tell moviegoers to turn off cell phones. When I first saw it, I thought the trailer was for Man of the House.
Lee: The advertising kind of reminds me of Taxi ($12.1 million - $4,008 per-screen), but Man of the House probably won't get kids. It feels like it's in an identity crisis in terms of what demographic they're chasing for. Life or Something Like It ($6.2 million - $2,387 per-screen) was actually in similar waters as Man of the House is, and it?s the same director.
Jason: I remember having that discussion before about another movie. When there's marketing confusion, it's definitely a box office impediment.
Lee: And they put Tommy Lee Jones in there just so that there'd be "some" appeal, even if it?s just modest. Is Cedric the Entertainer ever going to do a good movie? It?s like he has the same stupid role in every single movie.
Jason: The Honeymooners doesn't look any better. He has really typecast himself whether it's in a movie or a commercial.
Lee: Man of the House is like a cross of The Banger Sisters ($10.0 million - $3,664 per-screen) and Mickey Blue Eyes ($10.2 million - $3,955 per-screen) in terms of having a really last minute, light and silly ad campaign. And it?s questionable if this even has the appeal that those did.
Jason: I wouldn't have thought of those movies. So what do you have at this point for it? Sticking with $10?
Lee: $8.5 - 10. I'm starting to sense $12 - 14 coming for Cursed.
