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Box office comparisons - Review: Justice League (C)
Craig Younkin
Weekend Outlook Chat (Feb. 18 - 20)
By Staff of LMI Published February 17, 2005
"The first Matrix looked really unique for the time, and had one very cool trailer. Constantine seems somewhat familiar in comparison."
Lee: I guess last week proved that just because a genre hasn't done a certain amount over a weekend before doesn't mean it can't break a record.
Jason: Also timing and star power. I think you underestimated Will Smith's popularity.
Lee: The thing with Hitch is that Will Smith doesn't just target one demographic or race. I was just focused on the romantic comedy trend.
Jason: If you look at his past movies, they all have opened strongly. Also you looked at romantic comedies that didn't open on Valentine's Day weekend. That release date certainly helped ? just look at Monday's numbers. Hitch probably would have opened to $30 - 35 million if it had opened in March. And Pooh?s Heffalump Movie didn't even match Piglet's Big Movie last week. I think you just have a case of diminishing returns with the Pooh franchise.
Lee: I don't think Constantine has the Matrix buzz, but I see many of the people who showed up to Hellboy ($23.2 million - $7,652 per-screen) or even Chronicles of Riddick ($24.3 million - $8,810 per-screen) showing up.
Jason: I have the same sentiment.
Lee: The first Matrix looked really unique for the time, and had one very cool trailer. Constantine seems somewhat familiar in comparison.
Jason: Also remember that the Matrix sequels were very disappointing for a lot of moviegoers.
Lee: The star power should help it get beyond Boogeyman ($19.0 million - $6,232 per-screen).
Jason: Constantine isn't really horror, maybe "dark thriller.?
Lee: Well in terms of theater counts and movies going after young adults.
Jason: I think Hellboy and Riddick are good comparisons.
Lee: I think that despite the Matrix sequels having been disappointments for many people, Keanu Reeves still has a devoted crowd. But since this doesn't look as revolutionary, they're not going to flock out in such force. It would probably take word of mouth for that to happen, or you'd know it was as good just judging through the trailer, and it's pretty obvious it's no Matrix in quality.
Jason: $8 - 9 million Friday with minimal change on Saturday: $22 - 24 seems like a pretty safe bet. I did pick this movie in our previous quick 2005 preview. I said it was #3 for the most potential to disappoint, in terms of box office.
Lee: I see it rising on Saturday. Riddick was a sci-fi movie, and those can get screwed on the second day, and this is different.
Jason: On BOFC, they're expecting a low $30s opening. Even though it's getting 3000+ theaters, that doesn't mean as much as it used to. If Warner Bros. felt really confident you would probably see 3400 - 3500
Lee: Especially if movies like Winn-Dixie are handed that many theaters.
Jason: That is surprising to me. I was thinking My Dog Skip ($5.9 million - $2,515 per-screen) numbers for that.
Lee: I think many people are going to call me crazy for Son of the Mask, but I have a terrible feeling kids are going to see it. I saw a behind the scenes thing of it and it reminded me of Garfield ($21.7 million - $7,023 per-screen).
Jason: I have to agree that I think a lot of people are discounting its box office chances. Of course the trailer looks awful, but it is no longer an adult movie, and that's a smart move ? a serious Mask sequel would bomb badly. You only have to look at Dumb and Dumberer ($10.8 million - $4,157 per-screen) to see what happens without Jim Carrey.
Lee: I mean the common agreement is that it looks terrible, but we usually don't have the same mindset that kids do. Fat Albert ($10.0 million - $3,748 per-screen) looked terrible and that brought out kids in a two-day weekend, and it had legs. I know that was Christmas, but it still proved people are looking for stupid movies. I also think Jamie Kennedy has a fan base that is partly kids.
Jason: I think kids would probably pick Mask over Winn-Dixie. The reviews I've read for Winn-Dixie haven't been that great.
Lee: I remember Son of the Mask?s trailer was shown at Return of the King and I heard a lot of crowds booed it, but is that really its audience?
Jason: I don't think so.
Lee: I don't know why you'd advertise there. You?re only asking people to boo with a trailer placement like that, especially with the gung-ho crowds.
Jason: If they can get the people who went to see Dumb and Dumberer in addition to the kids, they'll have a decent opening.
Lee: The behind the scenes thing reminded me of Garfield and Scooby Doo 2, but this doesn't have the same built in audience as those do. I also have Stuart Little 2 ($15.1 million - $4,644 per-screen) and Spy Kids 2 ($16.7 million - $5,054 per-screen) as comparisons. Mask is also from the same director who did Cats & Dogs and that opened to $22, but in the summer.
Jason: So Mask 2 could potentially do mediocre on Friday and still make it up on Saturday. That's what it looks like in terms of animation ? Cats & Dogs.
Lee: The trailer uses the same music as the Cat in the Hat trailer. One of the things that triggered my prediction is that the preview has a style to it. When studios think something has potential, the trailers get snazzier. I don't like the trailer but it has a style that various other trailers don't have.
Jason: I saw budget figures for Son of Mask near $100 million. That must be pre-production estimates. I think a lot of people at New Line will be holding their breath when the numbers come out.
Lee: It looks like it could be an ok Fri with like a 45 - 75% Sat increase, which has the potential to make the weekend look impressive.
Jason: Looking at your predictions, the top 5 is already outpacing last year's top 10. A lot of poor openings last year: Teen Drama Queen, Mooseport, Eurotrip, Against the Ropes. Looked like a really dumping ground weekend.
Lee: I mean I'm haunted by the possibility that Mask's box office could be as bad as Surviving Christmas ($4.4 million - $1,615 per-screen) or even Pluto Nash ($2.2 million - $942 per-screen), in the worst case scenario, in comparison to what I'm predicting, but I think kids are unpredictable.
Jason: It would gross $3 - 4 million and you'll be stuck at $17. You might be haunted by that but a few people at New Line will definitely have it worse.
Lee: Surviving Christmas had 2750 theaters and this is getting at least 3000, so a big theater count isn't a guaranteed sign that it's going to succeed.
Jason: And Surviving Christmas had decent stars but really poor timing. I thought Garfield was going to bomb but it actually had decent legs. So if Son of the Mask can pick up kids, and it seems like they've been advertising heavily on kids' shows, they should be able to salvage the box office.
Lee: I've got The Tuxedo ($15.1 million) as a comparison too.
Jason: That had almost no appeal with kids. It was a standard action movie.
Lee: I think I read that kids were part of the audience. I think it skewed slightly younger than Jackie Chan's usual movies.
Jason: Also Tuxedo could appeal to teens and young adults with action, and Jennifer Love Hewitt. I don't think Son of the Mask has that same appeal, or make that any appeal.
Lee: What would be your prediction now?
Jason: BOFC is at $11, HSX is even lower at $8.5, so your prediction is definitely out there. I am hesitant at this point to join you at around $15 ? 16. I'm going to keep it at $13 - 15 for now. Although I think it will beat Winn-Dixie.
Jason: Also timing and star power. I think you underestimated Will Smith's popularity.
Lee: The thing with Hitch is that Will Smith doesn't just target one demographic or race. I was just focused on the romantic comedy trend.
Jason: If you look at his past movies, they all have opened strongly. Also you looked at romantic comedies that didn't open on Valentine's Day weekend. That release date certainly helped ? just look at Monday's numbers. Hitch probably would have opened to $30 - 35 million if it had opened in March. And Pooh?s Heffalump Movie didn't even match Piglet's Big Movie last week. I think you just have a case of diminishing returns with the Pooh franchise.
Lee: I don't think Constantine has the Matrix buzz, but I see many of the people who showed up to Hellboy ($23.2 million - $7,652 per-screen) or even Chronicles of Riddick ($24.3 million - $8,810 per-screen) showing up.
Jason: I have the same sentiment.
Lee: The first Matrix looked really unique for the time, and had one very cool trailer. Constantine seems somewhat familiar in comparison.
Jason: Also remember that the Matrix sequels were very disappointing for a lot of moviegoers.
Lee: The star power should help it get beyond Boogeyman ($19.0 million - $6,232 per-screen).
Jason: Constantine isn't really horror, maybe "dark thriller.?
Lee: Well in terms of theater counts and movies going after young adults.
Jason: I think Hellboy and Riddick are good comparisons.
Lee: I think that despite the Matrix sequels having been disappointments for many people, Keanu Reeves still has a devoted crowd. But since this doesn't look as revolutionary, they're not going to flock out in such force. It would probably take word of mouth for that to happen, or you'd know it was as good just judging through the trailer, and it's pretty obvious it's no Matrix in quality.
Jason: $8 - 9 million Friday with minimal change on Saturday: $22 - 24 seems like a pretty safe bet. I did pick this movie in our previous quick 2005 preview. I said it was #3 for the most potential to disappoint, in terms of box office.
Lee: I see it rising on Saturday. Riddick was a sci-fi movie, and those can get screwed on the second day, and this is different.
Jason: On BOFC, they're expecting a low $30s opening. Even though it's getting 3000+ theaters, that doesn't mean as much as it used to. If Warner Bros. felt really confident you would probably see 3400 - 3500
Lee: Especially if movies like Winn-Dixie are handed that many theaters.
Jason: That is surprising to me. I was thinking My Dog Skip ($5.9 million - $2,515 per-screen) numbers for that.
Lee: I think many people are going to call me crazy for Son of the Mask, but I have a terrible feeling kids are going to see it. I saw a behind the scenes thing of it and it reminded me of Garfield ($21.7 million - $7,023 per-screen).
Jason: I have to agree that I think a lot of people are discounting its box office chances. Of course the trailer looks awful, but it is no longer an adult movie, and that's a smart move ? a serious Mask sequel would bomb badly. You only have to look at Dumb and Dumberer ($10.8 million - $4,157 per-screen) to see what happens without Jim Carrey.
Lee: I mean the common agreement is that it looks terrible, but we usually don't have the same mindset that kids do. Fat Albert ($10.0 million - $3,748 per-screen) looked terrible and that brought out kids in a two-day weekend, and it had legs. I know that was Christmas, but it still proved people are looking for stupid movies. I also think Jamie Kennedy has a fan base that is partly kids.
Jason: I think kids would probably pick Mask over Winn-Dixie. The reviews I've read for Winn-Dixie haven't been that great.
Lee: I remember Son of the Mask?s trailer was shown at Return of the King and I heard a lot of crowds booed it, but is that really its audience?
Jason: I don't think so.
Lee: I don't know why you'd advertise there. You?re only asking people to boo with a trailer placement like that, especially with the gung-ho crowds.
Jason: If they can get the people who went to see Dumb and Dumberer in addition to the kids, they'll have a decent opening.
Lee: The behind the scenes thing reminded me of Garfield and Scooby Doo 2, but this doesn't have the same built in audience as those do. I also have Stuart Little 2 ($15.1 million - $4,644 per-screen) and Spy Kids 2 ($16.7 million - $5,054 per-screen) as comparisons. Mask is also from the same director who did Cats & Dogs and that opened to $22, but in the summer.
Jason: So Mask 2 could potentially do mediocre on Friday and still make it up on Saturday. That's what it looks like in terms of animation ? Cats & Dogs.
Lee: The trailer uses the same music as the Cat in the Hat trailer. One of the things that triggered my prediction is that the preview has a style to it. When studios think something has potential, the trailers get snazzier. I don't like the trailer but it has a style that various other trailers don't have.
Jason: I saw budget figures for Son of Mask near $100 million. That must be pre-production estimates. I think a lot of people at New Line will be holding their breath when the numbers come out.
Lee: It looks like it could be an ok Fri with like a 45 - 75% Sat increase, which has the potential to make the weekend look impressive.
Jason: Looking at your predictions, the top 5 is already outpacing last year's top 10. A lot of poor openings last year: Teen Drama Queen, Mooseport, Eurotrip, Against the Ropes. Looked like a really dumping ground weekend.
Lee: I mean I'm haunted by the possibility that Mask's box office could be as bad as Surviving Christmas ($4.4 million - $1,615 per-screen) or even Pluto Nash ($2.2 million - $942 per-screen), in the worst case scenario, in comparison to what I'm predicting, but I think kids are unpredictable.
Jason: It would gross $3 - 4 million and you'll be stuck at $17. You might be haunted by that but a few people at New Line will definitely have it worse.
Lee: Surviving Christmas had 2750 theaters and this is getting at least 3000, so a big theater count isn't a guaranteed sign that it's going to succeed.
Jason: And Surviving Christmas had decent stars but really poor timing. I thought Garfield was going to bomb but it actually had decent legs. So if Son of the Mask can pick up kids, and it seems like they've been advertising heavily on kids' shows, they should be able to salvage the box office.
Lee: I've got The Tuxedo ($15.1 million) as a comparison too.
Jason: That had almost no appeal with kids. It was a standard action movie.
Lee: I think I read that kids were part of the audience. I think it skewed slightly younger than Jackie Chan's usual movies.
Jason: Also Tuxedo could appeal to teens and young adults with action, and Jennifer Love Hewitt. I don't think Son of the Mask has that same appeal, or make that any appeal.
Lee: What would be your prediction now?
Jason: BOFC is at $11, HSX is even lower at $8.5, so your prediction is definitely out there. I am hesitant at this point to join you at around $15 ? 16. I'm going to keep it at $13 - 15 for now. Although I think it will beat Winn-Dixie.
'Constantine' Articles
- Friday Box Office Analysis (2/18)
February 19, 2005 Constantine isn?t premiering in summer like {Riddick} and isn?t a sequel with a cult audience, and so its second day prospects are better. -- Lee Tistaert
