Weekend Outlook Chat (Feb. 11 - 13)

Lee: Well, it seems Wedding Date was the one that slapped a lot of people in the face last week. And it also shows the potential for Hitch.

Jason: I think one of the lessons last weekend was don't under-predict tracking numbers especially given this year's trend with horror movies. And the box office was only down 4% year to year last weekend.

Lee: Adults, or more likely women, have evidently craved a comedy since Meet the Fockers. I think Boogeyman was more so in the realm of expectations.

Jason: I think your Hitch predictions are too low right now.

Lee: I've raised mine. It's also getting 3575 theaters.

Jason: There are some scheduling difficulties this year, in that Valentine's Day is a Monday instead of Saturday, but I think ultimately people are still going to the movies this weekend.

Lee: But as much as Will Smith is a big star, I don't see this grabbing the same crowd that made I Robot turn in $52 million.

Jason: But you have Hitch doing less business than 50 First Dates ($39.9 million - $11,097 per-screen) in your early predictions.

Lee: It's going after the adult romantic comedy crowd, which is a different crowd. Hitch isn?t dominantly teens.

Jason: Who has more box office draw, though?

Lee: I see it as going after many of the people who showed up to What Women Want ($33.6 million - $11,160 per-screen). Adjusted for ticket inflation, that?s $38.8 million.

Jason: That opened up in December, though - a month which usually has smaller openings but better legs. Look at the last two Valentine's Day weekends: $40+ million number one movies.

Lee: If it was Will Smith and someone else besides Kevin James who has as big a presence as Smith, I might be more optimistic. But it?s also hard to get a romantic comedy to $40.

Jason: Sweet Home Alabama opened with $35.6 million ($10,826 per-screen) in September. I think there's going to be a lot of moviegoers that just want to see a romantic movie.

Lee: But I think 50 First Dates spoke to a lot of young people, who go to the movies the most. I don't really see teens rushing out to this.

Jason: What is the alternative? Wedding Date will probably have a good hold but I don't see it cutting into Hitch's business.

Lee: What were the last $40 mil movies, 50 First Dates and what else?

Jason: Well Daredevil ($40.3 million - $11,614 per-screen) was the #1 opening in February 2003.

Lee: Wedding Singer had somewhat of a cult following and it was a duo a lot of people wanted to see onscreen again. Daredevil was an action flick with an ensemble cast, and those are easy to get big openings out of. How many romantic comedies aimed more so at adults have done $40?

Jason: Is this really an "adult" romantic comedy?

Lee: The comparisons I have are What Women Want, Along Came Polly ($27.7 million - $9,290 per-screen), and Shallow Hal ($22.5 million - $8,210 per-screen). But it has a lot of benefits over Hal and even Polly.

Jason: I think Will Smith has a greater reach than Mel Gibson with younger audiences.

Lee: Well it's going to bring in the under-25 crowd, but I doubt to the extent of 50 First Dates.

Jason: Runaway Bride ($35.1 million - $10,907 per-screen) didn't hit $40, but it was close.

Lee: What Women Want had a clever premise, and this is somewhat in the same league.

Jason: Adjusted for prices, Runaway Bride comes in at $43.1 million.

Lee: Shark Tale did $47.6 million ($11,853 per-screen) and that was animated.

Jason: CGI animation has an appeal unto itself.

Lee: I just noticed Hitch?s director also did Sweet Home Alabama.

Jason: That debut was a big surprise. I don't think anyone saw that opening coming. But he hasn't done anything since.

Lee: That was also somewhat in the same league as 50 First Dates, in terms of Witherspoon having a cult-like following after Legally Blonde.

Jason: And Will Smith doesn't have a strong following? I mean, I'll be the first to admit that the trailer for Hitch looks pretty stupid. But I can't imagine that it doesn't have the same appeal of 50 First Dates. If it doesn't crack $40 million, it will be because of the calendar.

Lee: He has a really strong following, but I don't think there's a huge difference in what it offers compared to What Women Want. His other movies have brought in a lot of young moviegoers, and I Robot and Bad Boys II were big summer action flicks, which are different.

Jason: I don't think that will affect the box office as much as the fact that 1) there's no holiday on Monday as there was in 2003, and 2) Valentine's Day is Monday this year instead of Saturday as it was in 2004. I'm going with $40+ and narrowing it down on Thursday night when I see more tracking data. The only other wide release is the Pooh?s Heffalump Movie.

Lee: Which I think will do about the same as The Tigger Movie ($9.4 million - $3,379 per-screen).

Jason: That's optimistic isn't it? I was thinking Piglet's Big Movie, unless there's something I don't know with the new character, in terms of popularity. I was thinking $5 - 6 million.

Lee: Tigger Movie had 2723 theaters. It?s hard not to do at least ?some? business in that quantity. What did Piglet do?

Jason: $6 million in 2084 theaters.

Lee: Heffalump Movie was advertised at some screenings of The Incredibles, which makes me somewhat hopeful, in terms of the trailer?s exposure.

Jason: I guess the theater count makes the difference. Well, I'll work off your prediction then.

Lee: It might even have more appeal than Agent Cody Banks 2 ($8.0 million - $2,695 per-screen). I just think it has a modest, built-in fan base.

Jason: I think there are some interesting limited releases this weekend. The interesting part about Blackball is that the DVD for it comes out on Tuesday. So the movie comes out Friday and you can pick on the DVD 4 days later.

Lee: And then there's Bride and Prejudice, with the same director who did Bend it like Beckham. Beckham was a pretty decent movie. I wasn't a fan of the movie when I first saw it, but I eventually warmed up to it a little bit.

Jason: Beckham is likely much better. Yeah I remember talking about it.

Lee: This looks like broad comedy.

Jason: Vince Vaughn is in Blackball? I guess he only has a small part. It looks like they are trying to capitalize on Dodgeball. The last National Lampoon movie was Gold Diggers, which opened to $379 per theater. Dorm Daze opened in 34 theaters with an average of $815 per site, another National Lampoon movie. I can see Blackball opening with $7,000. The DVD comes out on Tuesday; why would any self-respecting theater want to be stuck with this movie?

Lee: To me Bride & Prejuice looks like a stupider version of Beckham. I've only seen commercials. The Guru did just over $600,000 in 62 theaters, how many theaters is this getting?

Jason: I heard 30 theaters for Bride and Prejudice.

Lee: Guru averaged $10,000/screen, which means it probably made more at specific theaters, which means there's a strong limited release audience for these types of movies. Beckham averaged $27,000 in 6 theaters, $162,000. Monsoon Wedding did $34,000/screen in 2 theaters, but that had a lot behind it. I think Bride and Prejudice could go various ways.

Jason: It should do well.

Lee: There are very few movies a year for those demographics.

Jason: How many times have you seen a Bollywood movie unexpectedly show up in the top 20 with only a few theaters. This has a lot more buzz.

Lee: Inside Deep Throat is produced by Brian Grazer - that surprised me when I heard he picked it up. To me it seems like it came out of nowhere. If it weren't for Grazer producing it, I'd think it could open and disappear like Baadasssss ($0.062 - $4,317 per-screen). I think it could still do that, but his name shows some hope.

Jason: I remember the first time I saw the title in top worldwide revenue, I thought you had inputted it with too many zeroes. I mean, can you imagine that Deep Throat made as much as The Incredibles worldwide?

Lee: For some reason I think of Capturing the Friedmans ($0.065 - $21,718 per-screen) as a comparison too, but I don?t know of the chances.

Jason: I'm not sure how well it will do. It's NC-17 and despite the attention, I haven't heard much from average moviegoers. I would be surprised if it makes more than $4 million in total.