Friday Box Office Analysis (2/4)

Boogeyman mimicked last week?s thriller, Hide and Seek, delivering $8.5 million on opening day. Booked in 3,052 theaters, the Barry Watson spooky fest averaged a strong $2,771 per-screen. In comparison, Hide and Seek took in $7.8 million last Friday, averaging $2,606 per-screen in 3,005 theaters.

With Super Bowl set to distract millions of moviegoers, the drops on Sunday are likely to be brutal for most movies. There?s a chance Boogeyman could fall on Saturday to the extent of Exorcist: The Beginning ($7.0 million Fri, $6.3 million Sat), but considering that was a sequel with a cult audience, the rush factor was probably stronger. Resident Evil 2 could be a similar comparison, as it dropped to $8.5 million ($2,584 per-screen) on its second day after posting a $9.2 million ($2,811 per-screen) gross on Friday night.

Hellboy could be an optimistic comparison, as it grossed $8.6 million ($2,847 per-screen) on Friday and $8.7 million ($2,876 per-screen) on Saturday, and posted a $23.2 million weekend. Boogeyman might stay in the vicinity of $8 million on Saturday or drop, with the weekend likely to be at around $20 million.

The Wedding Date seems to have grabbed the Will & Grace crowd, as the romantic comedy took in a better than expected $4.2 million, averaging $2,502 per-screen in just 1,695 theaters. Wedding flicks tend to do fairly well, judging from the performances of The Wedding Planner ($4.9 million - $1,775 per-screen) and The Wedding Singer ($5.2 million - $1,849 per-screen). Wedding Date?s per-screen average was right in line with Maid in Manhattan ($2,316) and The Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood ($6.1 million - $2,413).

Ya-Ya-Sisterhood had a devoted following from the fans of the book, which is why it dropped to $5.9 million ($2,318 per-screen) on Saturday (since people rushed out on opening day). Wedding Date isn?t based on a book but similar fate could still be in store. In a real optimistic comparison, Shall We Dance brought in $3.7 million ($2,098 per-screen) on in its first day and jumped 34% to $5.0 million ($2,807 per-screen) on Saturday. With both movies targeting relevant demographics (but with Wedding Date perhaps skewing younger), a jump on Saturday is not out of the question but 30% or so could be pushing it. Saturday could be either $4.0 million or so or close to $5.0 million, putting The Wedding Date on course for a $10 - 11 million weekend.