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Craig Younkin
Weekend Outlook Chat (Feb. 4 - 6)
By Staff of LMI Published February 3, 2005
"I think Boogeyman is going to have an edge over Darkness Falls ($12.0 million) with the star power, and 3052 theaters is not a bad sign."
Jason: I think a lot of predictors have to take a look at Super Bowl weekend going a few years back. Last year was a rare exception with You Got Served. I think the best case historical scenarios for the two openers this weekend are The Wedding Planner and Darkness Falls ($12.0 million ? 2837 theaters).
Lee: Yeah, I had to change some of my Sunday numbers after I realized the drop from Friday to Sunday can be up to 50% or more.
Jason: The key difference from other weekends is that the Saturday to Sunday drop can be brutal: 65% for basically every movie regardless of genre. Holdovers actually seem to do okay week-to-week.
Lee: I think Boogeyman is going to have an edge over Darkness Falls ($12.0 million) with the star power, and 3052 theaters is not a bad sign.
Jason: Wow. Last I saw, it was 2700+. That is really ambitious.
Lee: It's getting more than Hide and Seek got, but that doesn't always mean anything - Agent Cody Banks got 3369.
Jason: I don't expect it to beat Darkness Falls. That movie had virtually no competition.
Lee: I have it pretty much in line with Final Destination 2 ($16.0 million - 2834 theaters), even though this isn't a sequel.
Jason: The screen count is definitely pointing people towards a record weekend opening for Super Bowl weekend, but I think there is too much competition and too little interest. This weekend is typically the 4th or 5th weakest of the year.
Lee: It has been advertised since Saw ($18.3 million - 2315 theaters) opened, and I think it's going to be hard not to bring back some of that audience. Kind of like what you said with Hide and Seek and White Noise.
Jason: comingsoon.net predicts $20 mil.
I think that's very improbable.
Lee: Yeah I thought that was optimistic, but not impossible. They're using Sam Raimi's name in the ads, which is what they did with The Grudge, and that could help. I don't know how effective that is, but it was one of the big mentions in Grudge's trailer. I don't know how many people know who he is.
Jason: But look at the distributor, they have a spotty record at best: Slackers, In the Cut, Anacondas, Breakin' all the Rules. Underworld was their only recent success and that had horrible legs.
Lee: I think there's a fine line of difference in the tone and everything between Boogeyman and those movies, with the exception of Underworld.
Jason: But I think it shows the capabilities of the studio, in their ability to market their films. There's a reason why the movie is coming out this weekend. And it's probably because they don't think it will do very well and that the supposedly light competition will give it some hope.
Lee: Breakin all the Rules had really light advertising, though, in the material they showed. And I think Anacondas ($12.8 million - 2905 theaters) brought in the cheesy-horror-movie fans. I don't think Boogeyman's like that. The trailer's kind of dark and it has a style to it, which is sometimes a sign of strong business. It kind of reminds me of Taking Lives ($11.5 million) in that regard, which does make me wonder if it's going to mimic its performance.
Jason: For a $20 million weekend, it's going to need $8 million or so on Friday and I just don't see that happening. You said something about star power, what star power?
Lee: It has the 7th Heaven guy. He hasn't sold anything before, but it's a horror movie. Sorority Boys was a stupid comedy, and horror is generally an easier sell.
Jason: The director?s other films have never made more than their budgets.
Lee: What do you have Boogeyman opening to?
Jason: $12 million. I want to go lower, but I'm going to wait until Thursday to see some tracking numbers.
Lee: I've used the director/producer credits as box office guides. Sometimes they've made me confident something would tank and I'd be proven wrong, so it's not always consistent.
Jason: The director has a poor track record.
$4M budget vs. $12,836 gross
$40M budget vs. $14.967M
It seems like horror movies are easy to market, and there haven?t been many if any disappointing weekends in 2005 in terms of some openers surprising on the upside. But I think this will be the weekend that changes things.
Lee: Yeah, I had to change some of my Sunday numbers after I realized the drop from Friday to Sunday can be up to 50% or more.
Jason: The key difference from other weekends is that the Saturday to Sunday drop can be brutal: 65% for basically every movie regardless of genre. Holdovers actually seem to do okay week-to-week.
Lee: I think Boogeyman is going to have an edge over Darkness Falls ($12.0 million) with the star power, and 3052 theaters is not a bad sign.
Jason: Wow. Last I saw, it was 2700+. That is really ambitious.
Lee: It's getting more than Hide and Seek got, but that doesn't always mean anything - Agent Cody Banks got 3369.
Jason: I don't expect it to beat Darkness Falls. That movie had virtually no competition.
Lee: I have it pretty much in line with Final Destination 2 ($16.0 million - 2834 theaters), even though this isn't a sequel.
Jason: The screen count is definitely pointing people towards a record weekend opening for Super Bowl weekend, but I think there is too much competition and too little interest. This weekend is typically the 4th or 5th weakest of the year.
Lee: It has been advertised since Saw ($18.3 million - 2315 theaters) opened, and I think it's going to be hard not to bring back some of that audience. Kind of like what you said with Hide and Seek and White Noise.
Jason: comingsoon.net predicts $20 mil.
I think that's very improbable.
Lee: Yeah I thought that was optimistic, but not impossible. They're using Sam Raimi's name in the ads, which is what they did with The Grudge, and that could help. I don't know how effective that is, but it was one of the big mentions in Grudge's trailer. I don't know how many people know who he is.
Jason: But look at the distributor, they have a spotty record at best: Slackers, In the Cut, Anacondas, Breakin' all the Rules. Underworld was their only recent success and that had horrible legs.
Lee: I think there's a fine line of difference in the tone and everything between Boogeyman and those movies, with the exception of Underworld.
Jason: But I think it shows the capabilities of the studio, in their ability to market their films. There's a reason why the movie is coming out this weekend. And it's probably because they don't think it will do very well and that the supposedly light competition will give it some hope.
Lee: Breakin all the Rules had really light advertising, though, in the material they showed. And I think Anacondas ($12.8 million - 2905 theaters) brought in the cheesy-horror-movie fans. I don't think Boogeyman's like that. The trailer's kind of dark and it has a style to it, which is sometimes a sign of strong business. It kind of reminds me of Taking Lives ($11.5 million) in that regard, which does make me wonder if it's going to mimic its performance.
Jason: For a $20 million weekend, it's going to need $8 million or so on Friday and I just don't see that happening. You said something about star power, what star power?
Lee: It has the 7th Heaven guy. He hasn't sold anything before, but it's a horror movie. Sorority Boys was a stupid comedy, and horror is generally an easier sell.
Jason: The director?s other films have never made more than their budgets.
Lee: What do you have Boogeyman opening to?
Jason: $12 million. I want to go lower, but I'm going to wait until Thursday to see some tracking numbers.
Lee: I've used the director/producer credits as box office guides. Sometimes they've made me confident something would tank and I'd be proven wrong, so it's not always consistent.
Jason: The director has a poor track record.
$4M budget vs. $12,836 gross
$40M budget vs. $14.967M
It seems like horror movies are easy to market, and there haven?t been many if any disappointing weekends in 2005 in terms of some openers surprising on the upside. But I think this will be the weekend that changes things.
'Boogeyman' Articles
- Friday Box Office Analysis (2/4)
February 5, 2005 {After an $8.5 million Friday} Boogeyman might stay in the vicinity of $8 million on Saturday or drop, with the weekend likely to be at around $20 million. -- Lee Tistaert
