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Craig Younkin
2005 Quick Movie Preview
By Staff of LMI Published January 3, 2005
In 2004, Along Came Polly opened strong, Torque didn't start, Perfect Score failed and You Got Served got #1
JANUARY
Lee: It seems Sony is trying for a Forgotten with White Noise.
Jason: That's not going to happen. Try Mothman Prophecies.
Lee: I could easily see it coming in at $7 million.
Jason: That's exactly what I have. I can't see more than $12 million.
Lee: Mothman had star power, and a clearer premise.
Jason: Did you see Mothman, there wasn't much of anything that was clear in
that movie. There was another movie about a dead wife trying to communicate from the dead, something with insects and rainbows?Dragonfly
Lee: Haven't seen it.
Jason: Here's the synopsis: A grieving doctor is being contacted by his late
wife through his patients? near death experiences.
Lee: Is that White Noise or Dragonfly?
Jason: Dragonfly. See, same plot. $10.2 million open in Feb 2002, and $11.2
for Mothman.
Lee: And this doesn't have Costner's star power. Keaton hasn't opened a movie in a long time.
Jason: So I might have to up my prediction for White Noise. There's a lot of
people who really buy into the talking with the dead genre.
Lee: The comparison that comes to mind is Multiplicity. True. I?m still skeptical.
Jason: I think the big question for January is can Elektra open strong even though Daredevil had horrible legs and poor reviews. I remember Fox tried to blame the second week decline on the weather.
Lee: I think Elektra's either going to pull a Catwoman or a Hellboy.
Jason: Jennifer Garner is the only thing the movie has going for it. I think
she can definitely save it from being a Catwoman, but she didn't really show
much box office draw with 13 Going on 30.
Lee: But that was also aimed at young girls. I think this is going to get
more of the twenty something crowds who love this stuff. Brainless action is
sometimes easier to sell than a coming of age cute comedy.
Jason: So you might expect a $20 - 25 million open?
Lee: I'm at like $17 - 22. I don't think the word will be as bad as Catwoman, but I could see the debut being similar.
As much as I want to see Coach Carter bomb, it has a pretty good chance of cracking $20 if not getting very close. But it also depends on theater count.
Jason: $20 million for Coach Carter?
Lee: High $10's or $20ish.
Jason: That's going to be tough if Elektra does well also. I can't see two $20 million opens in January. I was thinking Drumline-like numbers.
Lee: The advertising has been going on since early Oct, which has got to mean something. Racing Stripes will be lucky to get over $9 million.
Jason: Well it looks like the only new kids movie in January.
Lee: Looks like an Emperor's New Groove, without the legs it had.
Jason: And why do they put Snoop Dogg in a kids movie?
Lee: Crowds have giggled at his name.
Jason: I guess that's worth it then, but I find it ridiculous.
Lee: Assault on Precinct 13 looks like a reincarnation of Half Past Dead.
Jason: I think they were trying to go for Training Day.
Lee: I don't think it's going to work. Ethan Hawk's not exactly a draw yet. More people were at Training Day for Denzel.
Jason: But the action scenes look impressive. I just don't know why they want to open on Wednesday. Martin Luther King day is the 17th, so opening on the 19th doesn't do any good. Anyhow, looks like a decent amount of action will give it a good opening weekend.
Lee: When I watch the trailer for Hide and Seek, Dakota Fanning reminds me of what's her face in Don't Say a Word's trailer...Brittany Murphy.
Jason: Yeah, it's a surprise to see her in such a dark role.
Lee: It's like they're going for such a creepy effect and for me it just doesn't work.
Jason: That whole weekend is horror/thriller, so audiences won't have much of
a choice for new releases.
Lee: Easy comparison could be City by the Sea or Godsend at the worst.
Next Page: Will any releases compensate for February 2005's Passion void?
Lee: It seems Sony is trying for a Forgotten with White Noise.
Jason: That's not going to happen. Try Mothman Prophecies.
Lee: I could easily see it coming in at $7 million.
Jason: That's exactly what I have. I can't see more than $12 million.
Lee: Mothman had star power, and a clearer premise.
Jason: Did you see Mothman, there wasn't much of anything that was clear in
that movie. There was another movie about a dead wife trying to communicate from the dead, something with insects and rainbows?Dragonfly
Lee: Haven't seen it.
Jason: Here's the synopsis: A grieving doctor is being contacted by his late
wife through his patients? near death experiences.
Lee: Is that White Noise or Dragonfly?
Jason: Dragonfly. See, same plot. $10.2 million open in Feb 2002, and $11.2
for Mothman.
Lee: And this doesn't have Costner's star power. Keaton hasn't opened a movie in a long time.
Jason: So I might have to up my prediction for White Noise. There's a lot of
people who really buy into the talking with the dead genre.
Lee: The comparison that comes to mind is Multiplicity. True. I?m still skeptical.
Jason: I think the big question for January is can Elektra open strong even though Daredevil had horrible legs and poor reviews. I remember Fox tried to blame the second week decline on the weather.
Lee: I think Elektra's either going to pull a Catwoman or a Hellboy.
Jason: Jennifer Garner is the only thing the movie has going for it. I think
she can definitely save it from being a Catwoman, but she didn't really show
much box office draw with 13 Going on 30.
Lee: But that was also aimed at young girls. I think this is going to get
more of the twenty something crowds who love this stuff. Brainless action is
sometimes easier to sell than a coming of age cute comedy.
Jason: So you might expect a $20 - 25 million open?
Lee: I'm at like $17 - 22. I don't think the word will be as bad as Catwoman, but I could see the debut being similar.
As much as I want to see Coach Carter bomb, it has a pretty good chance of cracking $20 if not getting very close. But it also depends on theater count.
Jason: $20 million for Coach Carter?
Lee: High $10's or $20ish.
Jason: That's going to be tough if Elektra does well also. I can't see two $20 million opens in January. I was thinking Drumline-like numbers.
Lee: The advertising has been going on since early Oct, which has got to mean something. Racing Stripes will be lucky to get over $9 million.
Jason: Well it looks like the only new kids movie in January.
Lee: Looks like an Emperor's New Groove, without the legs it had.
Jason: And why do they put Snoop Dogg in a kids movie?
Lee: Crowds have giggled at his name.
Jason: I guess that's worth it then, but I find it ridiculous.
Lee: Assault on Precinct 13 looks like a reincarnation of Half Past Dead.
Jason: I think they were trying to go for Training Day.
Lee: I don't think it's going to work. Ethan Hawk's not exactly a draw yet. More people were at Training Day for Denzel.
Jason: But the action scenes look impressive. I just don't know why they want to open on Wednesday. Martin Luther King day is the 17th, so opening on the 19th doesn't do any good. Anyhow, looks like a decent amount of action will give it a good opening weekend.
Lee: When I watch the trailer for Hide and Seek, Dakota Fanning reminds me of what's her face in Don't Say a Word's trailer...Brittany Murphy.
Jason: Yeah, it's a surprise to see her in such a dark role.
Lee: It's like they're going for such a creepy effect and for me it just doesn't work.
Jason: That whole weekend is horror/thriller, so audiences won't have much of
a choice for new releases.
Lee: Easy comparison could be City by the Sea or Godsend at the worst.
Next Page: Will any releases compensate for February 2005's Passion void?
