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Craig Younkin
Friday Box Office Analysis (12/17)
By Lee Tistaert Published December 18, 2004
For the weekend, A Series of Unfortunate Events should amass about $36 - 38 million.
Jim Carrey had similar success as Mike Myers on Friday, as Lemony Snicket debuted on par with Cat in the Hat, delivering $10.6 million. Playing in 3,620 theaters, the family picture averaged $2,937 per-screen. The movie had the possibility of faring like The Polar Express (if not a little better ? closer to $30 million) considering most ads failed to suggest an actual story, only pointing out that Carrey has a blast taking on the many characters he plays.
With Polar, the ads made it obvious that it was a visually oriented flick but as for a story it was a mystery as to what it was about. All most people knew was that Tom Hanks was computer animated in it, and while he is normally a marquee name it was a weirder scenario because it?s a family movie and he doesn?t have a literal presence in it (like live action). The ads also had the ?From the director of Cast Away and Forrest Gump? tagline as if it was geared toward adults, which confused many in that regard, as it was so clearly aimed at kids.
But a live action Jim Carrey is probably more appealing than an animated Hanks, and Lemony Snicket is also based off a very popular children?s book, hence the difference in ticket sales. With Saturday likely to be a big family attendance day, its tally could jump up around 45% and possibly up to 65% if the movie?s really lucky; that should give Lemony Snicket a Saturday haul of $15.5 million or so (or possibly $17.5 million). If the movie follows the same path as SpongeBob, its Sunday gross will be slightly lower than Friday, placing Sunday at a potential $10.0 million. For the weekend, A Series of Unfortunate Events should amass about $36 - 38 million.
Sony was stuck with an awkward advertising campaign for Spanglish given that it?s ?different? material for Adam Sandler. As a result, the James L. Brooks film turned in $3.1 million on Friday, averaging a mild $1,258 per-screen in 2,438 theaters. Sneak previews last weekend could not have been an encouraging sign, for if buzz had been where the studio wanted it, would moviegoers really need that word of mouth in deciding whether to see a movie with Sandler?
The movie is a drama, and is more so aimed at adults than Sandler?s core audience of teens and young adults desiring comedy, and that is probably the reason for it being his lowest turnout since Billy Madison. Spanglish debuted similarly to the Drew Barrymore tearjerker, Riding in Cars with Boys, which turned in $3.6 million and $1,309 per-screen in 2,770 theaters. The movie?s legs over the weekend should be similar to Riding in Cars, but with fewer theaters in store; Saturday should be roughly $3.5/3.6 million, and Sunday is likely to be about $2.3 - 2.5 million. For the weekend, Spanglish is headed for a take of about $9.0 million. Though it will be a soft debut for the marquee name actor, the movie might have the word of mouth to carry it to a decent finale.
Flight of the Phoenix pulled a Raise Your Voice on Friday in that ?Oh my God it actually bombed? sense (and perhaps in that ?There actually is a God? sense too). Pulling in $1.6 million in 2,604 venues, the action flick averaged $623 per-screen, failing to capture the interest of its target audience ? young boys. The advertising for the movie relied on the fireworks show that is the plane crash, and even the trailer seemed to show off every plot point, including the finale.
While that recipe can actually deliver box office success (it gives moviegoers a promise of what to expect), it seems that its survival story was a ?who-cares? matter to most people. Dennis Quaid isn't a prominent name for a marquee (especially for a teenage-skewing flick), and while the movie does lack strong names in general this is the kind of movie that usually attracts at least a decent crowd of young guys. Flight of the Phoenix should be looking at a Saturday take of nearly $2.0 million, with the weekend likely to be at about $4.5 - 5.0 million.
With Polar, the ads made it obvious that it was a visually oriented flick but as for a story it was a mystery as to what it was about. All most people knew was that Tom Hanks was computer animated in it, and while he is normally a marquee name it was a weirder scenario because it?s a family movie and he doesn?t have a literal presence in it (like live action). The ads also had the ?From the director of Cast Away and Forrest Gump? tagline as if it was geared toward adults, which confused many in that regard, as it was so clearly aimed at kids.
But a live action Jim Carrey is probably more appealing than an animated Hanks, and Lemony Snicket is also based off a very popular children?s book, hence the difference in ticket sales. With Saturday likely to be a big family attendance day, its tally could jump up around 45% and possibly up to 65% if the movie?s really lucky; that should give Lemony Snicket a Saturday haul of $15.5 million or so (or possibly $17.5 million). If the movie follows the same path as SpongeBob, its Sunday gross will be slightly lower than Friday, placing Sunday at a potential $10.0 million. For the weekend, A Series of Unfortunate Events should amass about $36 - 38 million.
Sony was stuck with an awkward advertising campaign for Spanglish given that it?s ?different? material for Adam Sandler. As a result, the James L. Brooks film turned in $3.1 million on Friday, averaging a mild $1,258 per-screen in 2,438 theaters. Sneak previews last weekend could not have been an encouraging sign, for if buzz had been where the studio wanted it, would moviegoers really need that word of mouth in deciding whether to see a movie with Sandler?
The movie is a drama, and is more so aimed at adults than Sandler?s core audience of teens and young adults desiring comedy, and that is probably the reason for it being his lowest turnout since Billy Madison. Spanglish debuted similarly to the Drew Barrymore tearjerker, Riding in Cars with Boys, which turned in $3.6 million and $1,309 per-screen in 2,770 theaters. The movie?s legs over the weekend should be similar to Riding in Cars, but with fewer theaters in store; Saturday should be roughly $3.5/3.6 million, and Sunday is likely to be about $2.3 - 2.5 million. For the weekend, Spanglish is headed for a take of about $9.0 million. Though it will be a soft debut for the marquee name actor, the movie might have the word of mouth to carry it to a decent finale.
Flight of the Phoenix pulled a Raise Your Voice on Friday in that ?Oh my God it actually bombed? sense (and perhaps in that ?There actually is a God? sense too). Pulling in $1.6 million in 2,604 venues, the action flick averaged $623 per-screen, failing to capture the interest of its target audience ? young boys. The advertising for the movie relied on the fireworks show that is the plane crash, and even the trailer seemed to show off every plot point, including the finale.
While that recipe can actually deliver box office success (it gives moviegoers a promise of what to expect), it seems that its survival story was a ?who-cares? matter to most people. Dennis Quaid isn't a prominent name for a marquee (especially for a teenage-skewing flick), and while the movie does lack strong names in general this is the kind of movie that usually attracts at least a decent crowd of young guys. Flight of the Phoenix should be looking at a Saturday take of nearly $2.0 million, with the weekend likely to be at about $4.5 - 5.0 million.
