Friday Box Office Analysis (12/10)

You would almost have to be living in a box to be unaware of the presence of Ocean?s 12. Though Ocean?s 11 drew out a wide demographic range ? especially after the word got out that it was a good flick ? the one questionable factor was whether or not Ocean?s 12 would follow. The ads for the film (with the official trailer and television commercials) hinted that it would be a very light but stylish con flick in which the popcorn value is about the only reason to go.

The same could?ve been said for Charlie?s Angels: Full Throttle, which turned off a good number of the adult moviegoers who had seen the first installment out of curiosity, as they were discouraged with the sequel?s brainless ads. Ocean?s 12 debuted on Friday and delivered $14.7 million in ticket sales, averaging $4,457 per-screen. The figure was right in line with Charlie?s Angels 2, proving that this flashy sequel is probably playing to younger audiences.

The original Ocean?s 11 opened on the same Friday three years ago to the tune of $13.3 million and $4,336 per-screen, and concluded the weekend with $38.1 million; but the film had strong legs and got itself to a mighty total of $183.4 million. Had many of the older moviegoers showed up once again here, Ocean?s 12 probably would?ve grossed at least $17.0 million on Friday (and would stand a chance at a $50 million weekend). And for a movie in which you?d have to be pretty weird to be unaware of its debut, this proves that this sequel is probably like a summer action flick, geared more toward the 20 - 35 crowd (with the over 35 crowd being a very small group).

Ocean?s 12 might be frontloaded, but being that we?re not in summer its chances of being radically frontloaded are not strong, even if word of mouth is mixed (which it is likely to be). Full Throttle slipped to $13.0 million ($3,760) on its second day (in summer) and finished the weekend with $37.6 million, which was a slight cry from the original?s $40.2 million bow. If Ocean?s 12 decreases, it is not likely to drop more than 5%; Saturday could be roughly $14.0 million. Sunday is likely to see about a 28 - 38% drop from Friday ($9.0 - 10.5 million), which could put Ocean?s 12 on course for a weekend of $38 - 40 million.

After a Wednesday debut that hinted toward possible White Chicks-like business, Wesley Snipes second sequel, Blade: Trinity, crashed and burned on Friday. The vampire action flick turned in a boring $5.5 million ($1,884 per-screen), quite a surprise considering Wednesday tallies (which was $5.5 million for this) can be doubled on Friday for a new releases like this.

The only question from here is whether the movie goes downhill or sees a decent holdup throughout the weekend. Saturday could see basically the same figure as Friday (or slightly less), and with only a slight chance of the movie increasing it probably wouldn?t earn much more than $6.5 million. That would give Blade a weekend debut of roughly $14 - 16 million, a long cry from the $32.5 million weekend take of Blade 2 (with Wednesday and Thursday included, Trinity?s total should be $23 - 25 million).