Friday Box Office Analysis (10/1)

After an aggressive marketing push that included an eye popping 4,016-theater count release, Shark Tale opened right alongside the first Shrek and Cat in the Hat on Friday; grossing $12.9 million, the family flick scored an average of $3,223 per-screen. In comparison, Shrek had turned in $11.6 million and $3,226 per-screen in 3,587 theaters, while Cat in the Hat grossed $11.2 million and $3,233 per-screen in 3,464 theaters. The averages prove that DreamWorks did not need 4,000 theaters, but rather, that might have been a marketing device to take in as much sales as they could. Reviews have not been too kind on the movie, and it is questionable how word of mouth is going to be.

Shark Tale has a decent chance of getting the same 45% Saturday boost that both of the other family flicks received, which would put its second day right around $19.0 million (or possibly $15.5 million in the worst case scenario). The other question is whether Sunday will be larger than Friday, as with good reviews and even better word of mouth, Shrek was ahead 15% on Sunday compared to opening day, while Cat in the Hat dipped 5% on Sunday. Either way, a three-day figure of $40 - 45 million should be in the works.

Ladder 49 managed to survive the shaky reviews and deliver $7.6 million on Friday, averaging a good $2,318 per-screen in 3,260 theaters. The movie puts John Travolta back on the map, despite that Joaquin Phoenix is in fact the star; The Punisher, in which Travolta has a co-starring role, debuted to a $5.2 million Friday and $13.8 million weekend, and collapsed. Ladder 49 opened in line with Travolta?s thriller, The General?s Daughter, which took in $7.0 million and $2,440 per-screen, on its way to a $22.0 million weekend.

The figure also matched the debut of The Forgotten last week, which grossed $7.6 million ($2,455 per-screen) on Friday and finished the weekend at $21.0 million. Ladder?s Saturday gross should be between $8 and 9 million, which puts the weekend at about $20 - 22 million.