Friday Box Office Analysis (9/24)
The Forgotten poster
By Lee Tistaert     Published September 25, 2004
Katie Holmes? new chick flick, First Daughter, couldn?t even muster as much business as New York Minute ($2.2 million - $727 per-screen), which is quite sad.
Julianne Moore received her much-needed box office hit on Friday, as The Forgotten grossed $8.0 million, averaging a very strong $2,570 per-screen in 3,104 theaters. The figure is right in line with the opening day performance of The Sixth Sense, which took in $8.0 million, though it played in only 2,161 theaters for a more sizzling $3,704 per-screen.

This bodes well for Moore, as her previous mainstream attempt, Laws of Attraction, flopped with $6.7 million in its opening weekend, averaging $2,748 per-screen. The actress has been a success on the arthouse circuit with films like The Hours, Far from Heaven, and Magnolia, and it has obviously been a struggle for her to make a successful transition to mainstream movies.

Given that The Forgotten likely skews a little older in its demographics than some of the recent thrillers, the flick might not receive the same frontloaded treatment as Exorcist. The Sixth Sense got immediate buzz through the opening night word of mouth, which led to its $9.7 million Saturday ($4,466 per-screen) and $8.7 million Sunday ($4,025 per-screen) grosses, which shouldn?t happen here. Sixth Sense received a 20% increase on its second day, which, if translated, would put Forgotten at $9.5 million on Saturday. A second day increase between 5 and 20% could be in order, which puts the thriller on course for a weekend of $21 - 23 million.

Katie Holmes? new chick flick, First Daughter, couldn?t even muster as much business as New York Minute ($2.2 million - $727 per-screen), which is quite sad. The feel-good movie turned in $1.4 million on Friday, averaging a pathetic $604 per-screen in 2,259 theaters.

Holmes has struggled to make an image for herself as a leading actress, as her previous mainstream movie, Abandon, faired weakly with $5.0 million ($2,120 per-screen) in its opening weekend, while Teaching Mrs. Tingle had faired even worse at $3.3 million ($1,946 per-screen). Phone Booth brought her a $15.0 million ($6,055 per-screen) credit to her name, though most moviegoers were there for Colin or Kiefer. Saturday could be between $1.2 and $1.6 million, putting First Daughter at a weekend take of $3.5 - 4.0 million.
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