Crowd Report: "Open Water"

It?s times like this that you?re glad you didn?t plan a trip to the beach afterwards. So yeah, it worked on me. It was either Collateral or this on Friday night, and despite the mostly good reviews, I?m uncertain about the former. There are times where the critics are right on, but then there are other occasions, such as Once Upon a Time in Mexico and Dawn of the Dead, where I haven?t been on the same page. And no, my skeptical mindset on Collateral didn?t have anything to do with my box office forecast, and I?m mentioning that because there?s a pretty good chance I?m off ?again.?

When I got to the theater and noticed the line to get into Collateral was snaking around the mall, with the demographics looking like a fun group of people, I was actually tempted to exchange my ticket from Open Water, just for the hell of it (I like big crowds). But, nope?

At the AMC Century 14 theater in LA, the line for the 10:15 show of Open Water had all of 15 people by 9:30, which wasn?t an overly encouraging sign. I?m also saying this in comparison to the film that it had a longshot chance of challenging in terms of a per-screen average, which is The Blair Witch Project. When it debuted in LA in its first two weeks, that film sold out every show, every day at its one theater, and the lines to get in were like Star Wars.

However, the line eventually grew, and once Collateral?s God-awful long line went in, our line took over its position and got to a pretty decent length. In an auditorium that probably seats around 375 people, the show was not sold out, but it was at least 85% capacity. This is the same auditorium that I saw Mystic River in on its second day out at 1:00 in the afternoon when it averaged in the high $6,000?s in 13 theaters. That show was similarly crowded.

And when I saw Napoleon Dynamite on opening night at 10:00 in Santa Monica, the show was very close to being sold out, with 400 seats. Napoleon averaged in the high $6,000?s as well on that Friday in 6 theaters. In 47 theaters, Open Water might be looking at a weekend gross in the vicinity of $800,000, or in other words an average of $17,000+.

The demographics at this show were much of the same as at Blair Witch: a young, hip crowd mostly in their mid 20?s, and not exactly the type expecting Dawn of the Dead. On the topic, I saw Blair Witch twice in its first two weeks and both audiences liked it, which just goes to prove that expanding its release was quite possibly the biggest mistake Artisan made (a good majority of moviegoers in the eventual 1,000+ theater range hated it).

The trailers got mostly silent reactions.

Stage Beauty: in its loading up, I expected a pretty intolerable looking movie. As it played, it got more trust from me, but I?m still not sure.

Wicker Park: this is the second time seeing it, and I hope it?s the last.

Ray: if Collateral does prove to be Jamie Foxx?s breakout movie, this surely won?t hurt.

Paparrazi: what I?m still pondering over is when the ?From Producer Mel Gibson? tagline pops up for a second and instantly disappears. Do the marketing reps know that this trailer wouldn?t survive without Gibson?s credit, but at the same time not wanting to embarrass him with anything longer than a second, assuming that the average audience may think the movie looks dumb? Just a thought. It?s better than enduring Cellular, though.

The Last Shot: my audience at Eternal Sunshine was mildly amused ? this audience was quiet.

Suspect Zero: is it just me or does Ben Kingsley sound like Marlon Brando in Apocalypse Now? This actually starts off as an intriguing concept but looks like it turns clich?.

Saw (official trailer): I liked the teaser more, but I have a feeling the movie might not be as dementedly engaging as the teaser suggests. A few people actually laughed at the intro.

Open Water can be a hard film to judge the overall opinion from an audience at times, as there is a bit of silence in its 80-minute duration. However, a theory you can learn over time is that when an audience is really silent, just watching (as was the case at this screening), it can very well mean they?re hooked; otherwise, there?d probably be inappropriate laughter and/or annoying chatter (a.k.a., my crowd at Cabin Fever). And when the really tense scenes came around, there were some very serious gasps from people in the room, possibly in part due to the limited use of music (thus proving that silence can be more powerful, and gripping as hell).

And when the film ended, people didn?t even get up to leave at first. There is some final, subtle footage on the side of the screen during the ending credits, and everyone stayed for it, silently. Had this audience hated this film, or really anyone there, you?d probably have people racing out. It actually reminded me of the situation with Jaws ? apparently at that film?s premiere, the audience was so rattled that no one got up until the ending credits finished. I doubt this had quite the same affect on people, but an affect was definitely there.

I walked into Open Water wondering if it would be as good as Touching the Void (relevant premise), or even The Blair Witch Project (yes, I?m amongst the group that loved it). There were a few things I could?ve gone without in Open Water, but considering that it had me engaged from start to finish, and on the edge once the predicament kicked off, I can?t complain too much. It didn?t create the same psychological terror factor that Blair Witch (B+) achieved with me, and I had fewer complaints with Touching the Void (B+), but I think my rating is still going to be a B+.

Now, onto a few other movies? Collateral played on 1 screen at this theater, in a 432-seat auditorium, and sold out the 7:00 show. The line to get into the 10:00 show mirrored that of American Wedding ($12.2 million - $3,855 per-screen) on opening night, but I highly doubt Wedding?s evening show was similarly attended. Collateral?s 10:00 show also sold out by 9:40, and such a situation usually cues to something big.

Along Came Polly ($8.9 million - $2,975 per-screen) was also on only one screen and its 10:00 show was eventually filled, but I don?t remember if it sold out early, and I don?t know what the 7:00 hour was like. There is a chance that Collateral pulls a Dodgeball with a low $4,000 average, which also played on 1 screen at this theater and I could see Dodgeball having been as crowded here. Basically, a Friday gross of $12.0 - 13.5 million would not surprise me at the high end.

This theater also had some very interesting auditorium bookings. Little Black Book and Napoleon Dynamite were in two of the bigger theaters (of the 5 bigger ones), while The Village, The Manchurian Candidate, and The Bourne Supremacy were on the other side of the complex where the 200 seats and fewer auditoriums are. All three of the latter titles were sold out at the 10:00 hour, and so was Harold & Kumar and Fahrenheit 9/11 (at that side). Little Black Book wasn?t sold out and neither was Napoleon, and I doubt it would play that well here. I?ve never seen so many sellouts here in one night, and I was even curious if Collateral?s ?1? screen impacted that.

The Village might have been playing in the same auditorium that Elf got shifted to on its third Friday in release ($5.4 million - $1,602 per-screen), and Elf had sold out the 10:00 that night. If the comparison translates, the Friday holdover for Village would be around $6.0 million. And if that?s actually the case, Shyamalan might have buried the same grave for himself as The Hulk. Word of mouth seems to be pretty damn mixed on this movie, and having seen it, that?s far from a surprise. I liked it a lot, but it?s an easy film for people to really dislike.

So I was in Alaska from July 25 to August 4, most of the time without internet connection, which is why some things on the site weren?t updated as routinely. This doesn?t have anything to do with a crowd report, but I thought I?d share my near encounter with death?or I guess that way of putting it is just a better conversation starter. So we?re coming into Seattle on a flight, switching flights there (on the way to Alaska), and as normal we?re getting ready to land, depreciating in altitude.

So right as we?re a decent distance from the ground, the plane bounces up and eventually climbs up as high as it would had it just taken off for a new flight. Everyone on board is then clueless. The pilot soon goes on the PA and casually comments that they are having trouble getting the landing gear to lock, but that they are going through their safety checks on the matter.

We end up idling in the air for up to 15 minutes as the flight attendants are racing back and forth through the aisles, and pulling out the yellow ?Only in Emergency? folders. Then an attendant comes on the PA and tells everyone to buckle up very well, and that if you have children, keep them close by?something that nobody wants to hear in their entire life.

Then the pilot comes on the PA again and claims that the landing gear is fine, and that we might see equipment on the runway, but that it?s only precautionary. So we land tense as hell, and that ?equipment? is two fire trucks and a paramedic positioned our way, lights flashing, ready to charge toward us ?just in case.? That was our Welcome to Seattle moment. An airport terminal never felt so comforting before. Anyway, that?s my going-away story.