Friday Box Office Analysis (6/25)

After learning the rules of the marketing game through The Passion?s media trip, Michael Moore?s documentary, Fahrenheit 9/11, conquered the box office to the same degree, pulling in $8.1 million on Friday. Playing in just 868 theaters, the feature averaged an incredible $9,378 per-screen, beating out The Passion?s $8,816 average (on Wednesday) in 3,043 theaters.

While the documentary didn?t eclipse Spider-Man?s record opening day average of $10,901 per-screen in 3,615 theaters, its holdup throughout the weekend could mirror that movie?s performance or that of the Passion (including the possibility of a bigger Sunday than Friday). While Friday still drove out adults by the busloads, Saturday could be even stronger with those who didn?t want to compete with the opening day crowd status (even though Saturday might be worse than Friday) or with those who simply just didn?t have time. A Saturday increase to $9 - 11 million could be in store, which would put Fahrenheit 9/11 on course for anything between $23 - 28 million for the three-day frame.

After a pretty decent Wednesday start, White Chicks grossed $6.7 million on Friday, averaging $2,471 per-screen from 2,726 theaters. The cross-dressing comedy didn?t have as much steam as Barbershop 2 ($8.1 million - $3,003 per-screen), though beat out the surprise performance of You Got Served ($5.8 million - $3,014 per-screen). Saturday?s gross could be between $7.5 - 8.5 million (though $7.5 is more likely), which should give White Chicks a weekend take of around $18.0 million and roughly $25.0 million for the five-day frame.

Despite its ad-campaign?s warning of sentimentality, moviegoers (possibly young and old) lined up for The Notebook, bringing its Friday to a solid $5.3 million in ticket sales. Playing in a modest level of 2,303 theaters, the romantic drama averaged $2,293 per-screen, in gear with Crossroads ($5.2 million - $2,192 per-screen) and Cruel Intentions ($5.0 million - $2,160 per-screen).

The Notebook neared the Friday performance of The Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood, which earned $6.1 million and $2,413 per-screen from 2,507 theaters. Ya-Ya had the benefit of an ensemble cast (and James Garner also co-stars in both) while Notebook has more of a limited appeal in that division, though buzz from its novel surely made up for that. The Notebook might not receive much of a second day boost in sales (as none of its comparisons did), which should put the film on track for roughly $14.0 million for the weekend.

Two Brothers was the type of film that some people were dearly afraid that it could break out to some extent at the box office if it really wanted to, considering its trailer was lucky enough to be screened in front of a good number of Passion screenings. The family film put those fears to a rest, as the feature grossed just $2.0 million on Friday, averaging $942 per-screen.

Two Brothers grossed in the same league as Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles ($2.4 million - $1,119 per-screen), though a bit short of The Crocodile Hunter ($3.3 million - $1,282 per-screen). The latter release had the advantage of Steve Irwin?s television following, while the other was coming off of a very successful franchise (despite that Crocodile Dundee was pretty much dead at that point). A small to modest increase could be in order for Saturday, which would put Two Brothers in the vicinity of $6.0 million for the weekend.