Friday Box Office Analysis (6/18)

Pulling a surprise victory at the box office and the biggest opening day debut for all of its talent involved, Dodgeball hit a big chord with young audiences, delivering $11.9 million in ticket sales. Playing in 2,694 theaters, the comedy averaged a mighty $4,401 per-screen, proving that this summer has been too crowded with special effects-laden pictures and not enough opportunities to walk in, sit back, and just laugh for ninety minutes.

Dodgeball played very much like Adam Sandler?s breakout movie, The Waterboy, when it debuted in November of 1998. That comedy shocked Hollywood, pulling in $12.9 million on opening day in 2,664 theaters, averaging $4,831 per-screen. The trailers for Dodgeball had a lot of young viewers gossiping much like Waterboy did, and with this story and cast it?s almost heard to believe that a movie surrounding this activity hadn?t been made yet.

The comedy put Starsky & Hutch ($9.5 million - $2,991 per-screen) to shame in terms of its opening day per-screen average, but it may not rain on its parade too much longer. With Dodgeball?s fans likely to have rushed out on opening night excited to see its cast members being pounced during its games, a Saturday decline is a very decent possibility.

The Waterboy played strongly throughout its weekend, jumping to $16.3 million ($6,120 per-screen) on Saturday, but that also opened when school was in session. With summer having recently started for its core demographic, Friday is an easy time for its fans to rush out, and Waterboy likely had a bigger kids audience (with Saturday increasing) than Dodgeball is attracting.

Dodgeball?s Saturday gross could be in the area of $10.0 million, which would give the movie a 17% second day drop or something to that extent. If that were to be the case for this comedy, Dodgeball might be heading for a $28.0 million weekend, putting it on par with Starsky & Hutch ($28.1 million - $8,825 per-screen) and Along Came Polly ($27.7 million - $9,290 per-screen).

Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks reunited with the new film, The Terminal, though not in the genre that most fans would anticipate. The movie grossed $6.4 million on Friday, averaging a good $2,269 per-screen from 2,811 theaters, though unusually low for such collaboration. The film?s weakness could partly be within its cast?s drawing power, as while Hanks is certainly a name who can easily bring in moviegoers, the supporting actors are not known to attract big followings. The Terminal was also advertised as more of a typical romantic comedy, which is quite different than Spielberg?s other big, flashy projects which fans flocked to immediately.

However, the advantage that Terminal has over Dodgeball is targeting an audience that doesn?t rush out on opening day. The Stepford Wives barely increased in its second day even with its ensemble cast, but Hanks? films tend to bounce up by at least a decent margin. This won?t give the Spielberg release any chance whatsoever to compete for victory as much as it may like to, but Saturday can make the difference of cracking a $20.0 million weekend. A jump to $8.0 - 8.5 million might be in the works on Saturday, which should put The Terminal on course for roughly $19 - 20 million.

After a Wednesday debut that bombed, sending a sign that this movie was either dead already or that its audience wasn?t aware of its midweek debut, Around the World in 80 Days confirmed theories with its Friday deathbed score. The Jackie Chan vehicle earned just $2.2 million in its third day in release, averaging a pitiful $770 per-screen from 2,808 theaters. In comparison, Chan?s previous flick, The Medallion, managed $2.8 million on its opening day for a $1,045 average, and even that didn?t boast the campaign that this movie did.

Around the World? was a remake that most people questioned the purpose for much like when a guy who will go nameless decided that it would be fun to remake a Hitchcock classic. The only difference here is that fewer moviegoers dared to see how much the updated feature had been butchered. This family-oriented movie also lacked the sidekick presence of the goofball comedian, Owen Wilson, who was alongside Chan in Shanghai Noon and Knights, an onscreen duo that a lot of moviegoers were charmed by.

80 Days also featured a lineup of cameos that picked up delighted responses from audiences who saw the trailer, but much like Rat Race that offering just wasn?t enough to get many moviegoers beyond its silly premise. For the weekend, Around the World in 80 Days will continue Disney?s recent nightmarish track record after The Alamo flopped, and should deliver about $6 ? 7 million for the three-day weekend.