Friday Box Office Analysis (5/28)

Having a one-day advantage to rule the box office before Shrek rains on its parade, The Day After Tomorrow proved moviegoers? longing to see the world in crisis once again. Raking in a mammoth $24.7 million in ticket sales, the Roland Emmrich disaster epic averaged a scorching $7,210 per-screen in 3,425 theaters. Though the director?s earlier blow-up-the-world flick, Independence Day, opened on a Wednesday to the tune of $17.4 million ($6,040 per-screen), with ticket inflation since that movie?s 1996 debut, Day After Tomorrow scored exactly in line.

The movie easily outshined Pearl Harbor, which took in $18.7 million on the same day three years ago for a $5,818 average in 3,214 theaters (the shot in the trailer with Ben Affleck running wildly with his gun sure felt like Independence Day). However, Day After Tomorrow had been advertised as a flick to leave your brain at the door and have a good time, an easier task than to re-witness a catastrophe that actually took place. And really, not since ID4 have audiences had such a party house opportunity of a movie.

The Day After Tomorrow is privileged by opening on Memorial Day weekend when its box office figures stand a chance of being stable throughout the weekend to some extent. However, with mixed word of mouth roaming around (some calling it a fun ride, others one of the worst movies ever made), the disaster flick does face a chance of losing some of its business by Saturday.

Pearl Harbor jumped 10% on Saturday to $20.6 million ($6,419 per-screen), but that also had a larger adult factor, whereas Day?s demographic is more so younger and possibly too impatient to wait until its second night out. A Saturday gross between $23 - 25 million should be in the works, which should put Day After Tomorrow on course for a $65 - 70 million 3-day weekend.

Disney once again proved that they are not always the geniuses in marketing as we might expect, as after The Alamo tanked, Raising Helen is added to the list of box office letdowns. Pulling in $3.7 million on Friday in 2,717 theaters, the comedy averaged a weak $1,358 per-screen. As a movie that stars Kate Hudson and which was carried by a strong ad-campaign in terms of consistency (similarly to Sweet Home Alabama), the figure is somewhat surprising though rather relieving for those always wondering when the madness of this genre will end.

The comedy failed to spark as much curiosity as Jennifer Garner?s fairy tale, 13 Going on 30, which had turned in $7.4 million for a $2,147 average in 3,438 theaters, and also failed to live up to director Garry Marshall?s acclaimed track record. Though Raising Helen has a decent female cast, the presence of John Corbett could be getting a little old, as while Greek Wedding put him on the map, that was indeed two years ago and he has since been exploited enough.

Helen barely even outpaced The Prince & Me ($3.3 million - $1,248 per-screen) and the figure proves that Hudson is not and may never will be another variation of Reese Witherspoon. If Hudson continues with this cutesy genre, playing the same character in every movie like Meg Ryan, she could kill her career much like the latter actress (Hudson?s performance in Almost Famous is considered to some to be like Ryan?s in When Harry Met Sally). For the weekend, a 3-day gross of $11.0 - 12.5 million should be in store.

Even after Snoop Dogg?s broad exposure with Starsky & Hutch, his first leading man comedy, Soul Plane, followed the box office path of the recent Breakin? All the Rules ($1.8 million - $1,351 per-screen). The airline goofy comedy turned in $2.0 million on Friday, averaging $1,358 per-screen in 1,566 theaters. Though Soul Plane had ad spots in front of Dawn of the Dead screenings and was an obvious attempt to look like Barbershop in the skies (with its ensemble cast), its young audience looked the other way for once, which is quite a feat. For the weekend, Soul Plane is on track for about $6.0 - 6.5 million.