Friday Box Office Analysis (2/27)

With Newmarket Films relying off minimal advertising for their Jesus Christ retelling, the tactic pulled off phenomenally well, as thanks to the television spectrum of the media giving constant attention to the controversy over The Passion, the film bares a chance of capturing $100 million for the 5-day frame.

After a God-almighty $26.5 million Wednesday intake (which included Monday and Tuesday special screenings and midnight shows the night before), Mel Gibson?s labor of love, The Passion of the Christ, continued on sailing despite dangers of being heavily front-loaded. Followed by an impressive $14.8 million holdup on Thursday, the film had grossed $41.3 million by Friday, a figure that had been the higher end of studio forecasts for the weekend alone.

Now at Star Wars and Lord of the Rings heights, The Passion took in $22.8 million on Friday, delivering an incredible $7,508 average in 3,043 theaters. The marketing has been relevant to The Blair Witch Project, as word of mouth and steaming debates by religious activists have made even the most non-religious moviegoers interested in what the fuss is about. The film, which has garnered significant buzz over its graphic violence (which many believe should have warranted an NC-17 rating), is the movie to see if just for the sake of being involved in the discussions.

With Friday?s enormous performance, the film proved that its audience mostly consists of older moviegoers who don?t rush immediately on opening day/night, and can wait for the weekend. An increase on Saturday is possible (though not guaranteed, as there?s chance that it can start to fall slightly), with the three-day take likely headed for a monstrous $55 - 65 million.

Backed with a simplistic ad-campaign that depicted its rather formulaic story, Ashley Judd?s new thriller, Twisted, didn?t have quite enough steam to tread off Jesus for opening night, but nevertheless ranked as the biggest new Friday opener?if that says much.

Grossing $2.9 million on Friday, Twisted averaged a tame $1,060 per-screen in 2,703 theaters, and came in line with Sandra Bullock?s similar genre flick, Murder by Numbers ($3.0 million - $1,114 per-screen). The Paramount film also scored alongside Robert DeNiro?s drama, City by the Sea ($3.0 million - $1,151 per-screen) as well as Keanu Reeves? flick, The Watcher ($2.9 million - $1,071 per-screen). A Saturday increase in the low 20?s to 35% should be in order for the Judd thriller, which puts it on track for an $8.5 - 9.0 million weekend.

Moviegoers had the chance to have the time of their lives again on Friday night, and looked to have done so outside of a theater. Dirty Dancing: Havana Nights, the sequel to the 1987 flick of the same name (without the subtitle attached), turned in $2.2 million. Playing in 2,043 theaters, the teen flick averaged an uneventful $1,065 per-screen, grossing similarly to Kirsten Dunst?s romantic drama, crazy/beautiful ($1.8 million - $1,116 per-screen) and Center Stage ($1.8 million - $1,171 per-screen). A Saturday increase in the low 10?s up to 40% (a la Drama Queen) is plausible, which puts Dirty Dancing on course for a weekend tally of about $6 - 7 million.

After Super Troopers performed modestly (at best) in theaters (going on to near cult status on video), the Broken Lizard comedy group returned with their laugh/horror feast, Club Dread, to minimal attendance. The film earned $1.3 million on Friday in 1,807 theaters, averaging a dead $713 per-screen. The comedy performed similarly to Boat Trip, which turned in $1.2 million on opening day and a $722 average, as well as Willard ($1.4 million - $786 per-screen).

Though Troopers developed an enthusiastic audience in the long run, the comedy benefited from a few memorable moments in the trailer (particularly the ?Pull your vehicle over? bit), along with its story which went back to the days of Police Academy in the genre. Club Dread?s ads didn?t have the amusement factor that Troopers offered, as they portrayed a silly comedy that somehow managed to slice in goofy horror, creating a question mark for viewers.

Super Troopers had received an 18% increase on Saturday from its $2.0 million ($1,110 per-screen) opening day gross, going on to a $6.2 million weekend thanks to a holiday weekend (which allowed Sunday to be stronger than usual). For Club Dread, a relevant pattern could be in order for the Broken Lizard team, with a weekend performance of roughly $3.5 - 4.0 million.