Friday Box Office Analysis (1/9)

Despite Ewan McGregor?s sour luck with last year?s romantic comedy, Down with Love, and the chance that Big Fish might be too much of an arthouse film for mainstream moviegoers, Tim Burton?s latest film proved those points otherwise in its wide release expansion. The surreal Sony adventure will likely challenge New Line over the weekend for the top spot at the box office.

Luring in $4.5 million in its first day of expansion after a very strong limited release run, Big Fish did pretty well for a film that was questionable from the get-go in terms of mainstream appeal, and even fended off Return of the King for a day, taking top honors. The movie bared a chance of repeating McGregor?s bad streak from Down with Love ($2.4 million - $1,118 per-screen), which was advertised modestly and relied on a predictable and simplistic marketing campaign to attract its audience. Though being predictable can usually sell, Love?s story was presented ordinarily through the trailer and didn?t promise anything unique, which set it way apart from Kate Hudson?s How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days, which had a very appealing and slick trailer for its core crowd.

Big Fish benefited from director Tim Burton?s name/reputation (along with reviews and word of mouth), and despite the material being different from what his fans would normally anticipate, that factor could have paid a part in its uniqueness factor within the marketing. Averaging $1,850 per-screen on Friday in 2,406 theaters, the film?s probabilities of sustaining number one for the weekend will depend on its Saturday increase (but is nevertheless very possible), as Lord of the Rings? sales will likely see a brisk improvement on Saturday. With a jump in ticket sales of 20 to 35% likely to happen on Saturday, Big Fish should duke it out for the victory position, heading for a weekend finish of about $13 - 14 million.

Proving once again that Anthony Anderson?s movies usually sell to some degree regardless of the premise, My Baby?s Daddy performed pretty well for somewhat of a limited launch, selling $2.6 million worth of ticket sales, averaging $1,769 per-screen in 1,477 theaters. The opening day figure was in line with Eddie Griffin?s buddy-buddy action/comedy, Double Take, which took in $3.0 million and $1,839 per-screen in 1,631 theaters.

Baby?s Daddy had the advantage of two well-known comedians in the spotlight (Anderson and Griffin), along with the promise of Method Man?s cameo, who had scored a similar debut a few years ago with the comedy, How High ($2.7 million - $2,095 per-screen). With Love Don?t Cost a Thing ($2.2 million - $1,200 per-screen) having collapsed in its launch after having tried to sell a bland story with limited cast appeal, My Baby?s Daddy somewhat took its place despite not likely to perform a whole lot better. However, with Baby?s Daddy?s release being in nearly 400 fewer theaters, its per-screen average will be a bit more impressive. For the weekend, My Baby?s Daddy should gross roughly $7.5 million for the three-day frame.

Mandy?s Moore?s box office success might simply be a memory, as her latest romantic comedy, Chasing Liberty, performed very much like her previous drama (and flop), How to Deal ($2.7 million - $1,160 per-screen). Liberty turned in $2.4 million on Friday, averaging a slow and boring $992 per-screen in 2,400 theaters. The figure, though it seemed vaguely possible, is a little surprising given that its trailer was friendlier than the sappy nature of How to Deal?s tv-movie-like marketing. Chasing Liberty?s advertising campaign ran off a clich? and simplistic story, yet had some of the ingredients of Hilary Duff?s chick flick, The Lizzie McGuire Movie ($5.7 million - $2,013 per-screen).

The figure was far from accomplishing the gross of Moore?s feature film debut in A Walk to Remember, which earned $4.5 million and $1,889 per-screen. How to Deal started fading in its second day of release, placing Liberty in a questionable position, but its chances of improving modestly on Saturday are fairly decent. Chasing Liberty is on course for about $6.0 - 7.0 million for the weekend.