Friday Box Office Analysis (11/14)

Proving that Russell Crowe still has a devoted audience for large-scaled productions three years after Gladiator, Master & Commander propelled to the number one position on Friday with a hefty first-day figure, but that rank by Monday will also depend on an elf who continues to win over audiences nationwide. Master ruled Friday, but could very well be taken out over the weekend in general, heading for a 3-day take of $25 - 26 million.

Grossing $8.2 million, the Fox historical epic averaged $2,630 per-screen Friday in 3,101 theaters. Backed by a lineup of strong reviews, the film likely benefited from being one of the only fresh and promising products for adult moviegoers, with the last few months being dedicated to the under-30 demographic at the movies (for the most part).

Master & Commander performed similarly (per-screen wise) to Crowe?s drama, A Beautiful Mind, which earned $5.1 million in its (Friday) nationwide expansion, but a very robust $2,738 average in 1,853 theaters. It might end up being a very close weekend for the film, as the power of its Saturday increase and Sunday holdup will decide whether or not it rules the kingdom for the 3-day frame. With Elf having a chance to claim the top spot after its second-place finish last week, there is a chance that Fox may possibly over-estimate Master & Commander?s weekend performance if the race is indeed close (to ensure dominance in the weekend estimates round).

Proving to be a breakout hit much like The Waterboy for former Saturday Night Live comedian, Adam Sandler, Will Ferrell?s Elf continued to pack in the audiences on Friday, turning in $7.3 million, down just 18% from its opening night figure. Playing in 3,381 theaters, the Jon Favreau-directed comedy averaged $2,152 per-screen; and with a robust increase likely to come on Saturday, Elf is chugging along for a $25 million weekend figure. Its chances of a number-one weekend placement will rely on the film?s Sunday holdup, as if the picture grosses more than it does on Friday, the race could be extremely close.

The news on Matrix Revolutions just keeps getting worse, as the finale to the franchise dipped an incredibly disturbing 71% from its first Friday intake, dropping to $4.7 million on Friday. Playing in 3,502 theaters, Revolutions averaged $1,354 per-screen and is venturing for $14.5 -16.0 million for the weekend. The Friday-to-Friday drop was comparable to Hulk?s enormous second-week downsize, which went from a $24.3 million opening night to a $5.7 million second Friday; Hulk grossed $18.8 million in its second weekend, down 70% from its debut, but after a 77% Friday decline.

I guess it just isn?t the same without Michael Jordan; Warner Bros.? family adventure, Looney Tunes: Back in Action, performed poorly its first day, bringing in $2.2 million for a $747 average in 2,903 theaters. Space Jam, the previous studio attempt of mixing live action with animation, turned in $27.5 million in its weekend debut in 1996, averaging $10,388 per-screen. That film was backed by a powerful ad-campaign, compared to Looney Tunes? rather last-minute marketing approach.

With a strong Saturday boost likely on its outlook (along with a Sunday holdup), Looney Tunes should gross roughly $8.0 million for the 3-day frame and may possibly strike out soon thereafter once (producer) Brian Grazer?s huge vehicle, The Cat in the Hat, dominates the box office next week.

Once again the ongoing theory that one must never under-estimate the power of Paramount and MTV films strikes back, as their new exclusive documentary, Tupac: Resurrection, captured the box office in its rather limited platform, grossing $2.5 million for an explosive $3,110 average. Booked in just 801 theaters, the Tupac Shakur remembrance will likely either downsize in ticket sales a little bit on Saturday (if there was a rush factor) or see a small increase.

Tupac performed much like Martin Lawrence?s comedy concert, Run Tel Dat (also backed by MTV), which took in $2.7 million in its first night out in 752 theaters, averaging a hot $3,571 per-screen. The documentary also performed similarly to Ice Cube?s directorial debut, The Player?s Club, which grossed $1.9 million for a $3,179 average. For the weekend, Tupac: Resurrection is headed for a gross of $6.5 - 7.5 million.