Friday Box Office Analysis (11/7)

About five months ago, I don?t think there was a doubt on anyone?s mind that Matrix Revolutions would clear at least $20 million on its first Friday. With that figure probably not even going to be achieved on Saturday, Revolutions is headed for a weekend tally that will likely widen the eyes of many box office fans?and not for the better.

Coming in with $16.9 mil million on Friday after a $24.3 million first day Wednesday and a threatening $11.0 million figure on Thursday, Matrix Revolutions is heading for a 3-day gross of roughly $50 million, and a 5-day figure of about $85 million. The film will likely near Reloaded?s 3-day gross in its 5-day span.

Averaging $4,834 per-screen, a gross like that is usually great news to any studio, but with the potential audiences that could have shown up, it is pretty evident that many mainstream moviegoers are Matrix?d out. Not carrying much early buzz this time around about visual effects barriers being broken, Revolutions came off like just another sequel to many moviegoers, along with a theatrical trailer that (while debatable) didn?t show off anything spectacular.

With Reloaded?s ad, it was hard to see that preview without crowds going nuts; since Reloaded left town, the situation with the Revolutions ads have been far from that. At least in the more prominent Los Angeles theaters, Revolutions? trailer would play to fairly quiet responses from crowds, followed by the Return of the King trailer which gets the audiences alive with potential claps and cheers being thrown out.

Matrix Revolutions didn?t make a fantastic impression on Friday, being as though its nearly $17 million tally wasn?t that far off from Pirates of the Caribbean?s $14.8 million ($4,540 per-screen) Friday gross. Even Men in Black II managed $20.0 million ($5,615 per-screen) on its first Friday, followed by a $52.1 million 3-day and $87.2 million 5-day.

Likely to surprise some and meet some predictors? expectations, Will Ferrell got the gross of his career on Friday, with Elf coming in with a terrific $9.2 million in 3,337 theaters, averaging $2,742 per-screen. Even with the PG rating having had the chance to turn off some of the comedian?s more loyal 20+ aged fans, the family flick rose above the concerns and even outpaced Tim Allen?s Santa Clause 2?s first day gross of $7.5 million ($2,242 per-screen).

If Elf were to receive relevant daily patterns as Santa Clause ($29.0 million weekend), the comedy would earn up to $35 million for the weekend, but Saturday?s increase and Sunday?s holdup may not be as generous; a gross of roughly $30 million could be its fate.

Running off the ad-campaign of ?the people that brought you 4 Weddings and a Funeral, Notting Hill, and Bridget Jones?s Diary?, the marketing tactic paid off very well for Universal, as Love Actually pulled in $2.1 million in just 576 theaters, averaging a big $3,611 per-screen. The figure well surpasses the $2,509 first day average of Bridget Jones, despite not achieving its $4.0 million earning. The figure is also similar to Royal Tenenbaums? first decent expansion (in 751 theaters), which garnered $2.7 million and $3,562 per-screen.

With a decent-to-good Saturday increase on its outlook and good word of mouth very likely, Love Actually is headed for a weekend finish of about $6 - 7 million, which will set its path just right for its nationwide release next week.