Box Office Outlook: X-Men

So it’s come to that time again, people. Another X-Men movie is finally upon us. Because clearly we haven’t had enough X-Men flicks rammed down our gullet already, or enough comic book movies in general, especially in the last two/three weeks. So we have Days of Future Past, aka X-Men 5, aka X-Men 7, if you include those deep and stellar Wolverine solo joints. Let’s discuss this current film’s prospects at the opening weekend box office, because that’s all anybody cares about in the industry, right? I mean, do you really care if the storyline is quality or not? Yeah, I know you do, but you’re gonna go see this thing anyways. That’s called “marketing,” and the power of a franchise model.

After once again running our patented and super-secret algorithm, formulated at LMI labs, we’ve determined that this could be in the range of an X2 or Last Stand opening. Let me explain what that means: X2 opened to $85.6 million in 2003. X3, aka The Last Stand, opened to $102.8 million in 2006. Adjusted for 2014 dollars, that would be $117.1 million and $129.4 million, respectively. Your humble analyst believes that Days of Future Past will find its mark around this numerical area. Now remember, this is Memorial Day weekend, with pretty much everybody off work or school on Monday. This is a whole extra free day to pack them into theaters… And that means it’s Jackman time. Due to this extremely advantageous release positioning, I predict $120 – 130 million for 4-days.

But that sounds like a lot, you say. Yeah, that’s because it is. Remember, the original X-Men core-cast has not been on screen together since 2006 with Brett Ratner’s triumph of indie cinema. Combined that core group with the new actors introduced in First Class, not to mention the new character entries that this flick will provide, and you have all the ingredients for a producer orgasm soufflé. Will this be the biggest movie of the year? I don’t know, but certainly amongst the top three. Poised to bulldoze everything in its path, and facing reduced competition from the precipitous drop off of TASM2 and the already-bowed Godzilla, DOFP will possibly be locked in a battle royale with Transformers IV to be crowned the king of summer. Only time travel will tell.

P.S. – Based on my opening weekend prediction and using our specially engineered 3x-multiplier formula, this flick could crack $400 million cume stateside. That would probably put it in the $800 million to $1 billion range globally. Of course, this is assuming it is well-received and doesn’t drop off like a rock ala The Amazing Spider-Man 2 or something like Eric Bana’s Hulk. The reliable hand of Bryan Singer (no pun intended) should ensure that such a harsh reaction is avoided. I predict about a 2.7 opening weekend multiplier and a 2 – 2.3 worldwide cume multiplier. So far the reviews are good to low-great, but I’ve seen a few of my review sites which are giving it negative scores. As always, you be the judge using your opinion and your purchasing power.