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Craig Younkin
Dark Knight's Path to $500M
By Philip Friedman Published August 18, 2008
It looks like The Dark Knight will cross the $500 million mark during the first showings on Labor Day.
The Dark Knight is on the brink of a major box office milestone. The biggest opening weekend record is a great accomplishment, but you know, it's been broken pretty reguarly the last few years. An accomplishment that none of the previous weekend record breakers have touched is the $500 million milestone. Only Titanic has crossed it and The Dark Knight is set to be the second movie to do so. I did so back of the envelope calculations to figure out when it would likely do so. My model was pretty simple, assume 40% weekly drops with a few tiny refinements.
$471.1 million on August 17, 2008 (Day 31 of release)
+$2.2 to $473.3 (32)
+$2.1 to $475.4 (33)
+$1.9 to $477.3 (34)
+$1.9 to $479.2 (35)
Weekend: +9.8 to $489 (Day 38 of release)
+$1.3 to $490.3 (39)
+$1.3 to $491.6 (40)
+$1.1 to $492.7 (41)
+$1.1 to $493.8 (42)
Fri., Aug. 29: +$1.8 to $495.6 (43)
Sat., Aug. 30: +$2.5 to $498.1 (44)
Sun., Aug. 31: +$1.8 to $499.9 (45)
I originally did the calculations with the estimate box office which got to $500 million by Sunday, but with these crude calculations, it looks like The Dark Knight will cross the $500 million mark during the first showings on Labor Day. Keep in mind that box office better than 40% drops will accelerate when The Dark Knight breaks the $500 million mark and box office greater than 40% push that time later into September.
$471.1 million on August 17, 2008 (Day 31 of release)
+$2.2 to $473.3 (32)
+$2.1 to $475.4 (33)
+$1.9 to $477.3 (34)
+$1.9 to $479.2 (35)
Weekend: +9.8 to $489 (Day 38 of release)
+$1.3 to $490.3 (39)
+$1.3 to $491.6 (40)
+$1.1 to $492.7 (41)
+$1.1 to $493.8 (42)
Fri., Aug. 29: +$1.8 to $495.6 (43)
Sat., Aug. 30: +$2.5 to $498.1 (44)
Sun., Aug. 31: +$1.8 to $499.9 (45)
I originally did the calculations with the estimate box office which got to $500 million by Sunday, but with these crude calculations, it looks like The Dark Knight will cross the $500 million mark during the first showings on Labor Day. Keep in mind that box office better than 40% drops will accelerate when The Dark Knight breaks the $500 million mark and box office greater than 40% push that time later into September.
'The Dark Knight' Articles
- Craig's The Dark Knight review A
July 19, 2008 Nothing short of a masterpiece. I feel it’s arguably one of the best and most riveting movies of the past decade. -- Craig Younkin - 'Dark Knight' Destroyer of Records
July 19, 2008 I had expected The Dark Knight to pick up the midnight and possibly the one-day record, but the $66.4 million is a bit of a surprise. -- Philip Friedman - Outlook: Which Records for 'Dark Knight'?
July 17, 2008 Midnights will be essential. By the time the normal weekend business begins at around 10am on Friday, The Dark Knight could already be one third of the way to a one-day record (Spider-Man 3's $59.842 million). -- Philip Friedman - Dark Knight: Live Coverage
July 11, 2008 In anticipation of what will likely be the biggest movie of 2008, we'll be hosting live coverage of The Dark Knight throughout its opening weekend. -- Staff of LMI - The Batman Franchise: A Recap
July 10, 2008 Unlike 2008, I was completely ignorant of any buzz, reviews or box office implications when I went in to the theater. -- Philip Friedman
