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Craig Younkin
Hancock's Less Than Super Open
By Philip Friedman Published July 3, 2008
That would give Hancock $101.6 million for the 5.5 day open (and I had thought $100 million would be no problem). Again, that's based solely on the box office comparisons from 5 years ago.
Since its Tuesday night open, Hancock has brought in an estimated $24.1 million. While that might sound impressive, the first clue that it's disappointing would probably be that the top 10 is down 41% versus last year (when Transformers was #1). In addition, if you strip out the $6.8 million from Tuesday, Hancock is left with non-superhero-like $17.3 million for its first day. Transformers grossed $29 million this time last year and it had already been out for 5 days. However, to be fair, it was the highest top 10 total for any Wednesday this year and the Fourth of July complicates comparisons. This year, Tuesday and Wednesday were not holidays like they were last year.
I like being able to look at similar movies for comparisons and since July 4th is crucial to that, I went back to 2003 - the last time that the holiday fell on a Friday. It also presents a seemingly excellent comparison, Terminator 3, which had Tuesday night previews like Hancock. T3's previews brought in $4.0 million on 2,569 theaters and then increased to $12.4 million on Wednesday (a 311% increase). Hancock's preview brought in $6.8 million on 3,680 theaters and increased 254% on Wednesday. Instead of blaming the smaller increase on bad buzz, I'd say that Hancock had a wider release for its previews than Terminator 3 did.
Assuming Hancock isn't overwhelmed by bad buzz, at least compared to T3, I think 2003 offers a good view of what to expect. On Thursday, Terminator 3 dropped just 5%, while the other opener, Legally Blonde 2 dropped 22%. The previews obviously helped minimize the drop off for T3. The top 10 total declined slightly, but most movies increased. T 3 increased again on Friday, up 10%. Saturday saw huge increases across the board. T3 increased 36%, while every other movie saw increased of over 50%. On Sunday, Terminator 3 dropped 25% for a 5 1/2 day total of $72.4 million and a week of $44.0 million.
Although I'd rather use a 2007 example rather than 2003, here's what Hancock's box office will look like, if it follows in the 2003 model of Terminator 3.
Tuesday: $6.8 million
Wednesday: $17.3 million (+254%)
Predicted box office:
Thursday: $16.4 million (-5%)
Friday: $18.1 million (+10%)
Saturday: $24.6 million (+36%)
Sunday: $18.4 million (-25%)
That would give Hancock $101.6 million for the 5.5 day open (and I had thought $100 million would be no problem). Again, that's based solely on the box office data from 5 years ago. Bad buzz could lower that, although was the buzz on Terminator 3 very strong (It did have a strong 70% on RT)? On the other hand, T3 was a long-awaited sequel, which was heavily frontloaded. Slightly better increases on Friday and Saturday could make a $5-$10 million difference for Hancock.
I'm guessing that whatever its 5.5 day total is, it will represent around 50% of Hancock's entire box office. So $100 million through July 6 would mean a final box office of around $200 million.
I like being able to look at similar movies for comparisons and since July 4th is crucial to that, I went back to 2003 - the last time that the holiday fell on a Friday. It also presents a seemingly excellent comparison, Terminator 3, which had Tuesday night previews like Hancock. T3's previews brought in $4.0 million on 2,569 theaters and then increased to $12.4 million on Wednesday (a 311% increase). Hancock's preview brought in $6.8 million on 3,680 theaters and increased 254% on Wednesday. Instead of blaming the smaller increase on bad buzz, I'd say that Hancock had a wider release for its previews than Terminator 3 did.
Assuming Hancock isn't overwhelmed by bad buzz, at least compared to T3, I think 2003 offers a good view of what to expect. On Thursday, Terminator 3 dropped just 5%, while the other opener, Legally Blonde 2 dropped 22%. The previews obviously helped minimize the drop off for T3. The top 10 total declined slightly, but most movies increased. T 3 increased again on Friday, up 10%. Saturday saw huge increases across the board. T3 increased 36%, while every other movie saw increased of over 50%. On Sunday, Terminator 3 dropped 25% for a 5 1/2 day total of $72.4 million and a week of $44.0 million.
Although I'd rather use a 2007 example rather than 2003, here's what Hancock's box office will look like, if it follows in the 2003 model of Terminator 3.
Tuesday: $6.8 million
Wednesday: $17.3 million (+254%)
Predicted box office:
Thursday: $16.4 million (-5%)
Friday: $18.1 million (+10%)
Saturday: $24.6 million (+36%)
Sunday: $18.4 million (-25%)
That would give Hancock $101.6 million for the 5.5 day open (and I had thought $100 million would be no problem). Again, that's based solely on the box office data from 5 years ago. Bad buzz could lower that, although was the buzz on Terminator 3 very strong (It did have a strong 70% on RT)? On the other hand, T3 was a long-awaited sequel, which was heavily frontloaded. Slightly better increases on Friday and Saturday could make a $5-$10 million difference for Hancock.
I'm guessing that whatever its 5.5 day total is, it will represent around 50% of Hancock's entire box office. So $100 million through July 6 would mean a final box office of around $200 million.
'Hancock' Articles
- 'Hancock' Meets Lowered Expectations
July 5, 2008 $18.5 million isn't much to celebrate, but it's still a strong weekend. It seems that by the beginning of the week, just about everyone had lowered the bar to around $100-110M. -- Philip Friedman - Craig's Hancock review C+
July 3, 2008 I wish it were better but I admired it for trying to do something new and felt there were some good scattered moments in a sadly unpleasing whole. -- Craig Younkin
