Summer Previews: July

As far as Junes go, 2008 was pretty exciting. While the weekdays are usually higher, it's rare that the June weekends - the headline grabbers - are so strong. July promises to keep that up. For a comprehensive list of upcoming July releases, check out upcoming release schedule.

June 2 (with previews on the evening of June 1)

Hancock
It's pretty obvious that this will be a blockbuster before the weekend is over. $100 million for the 5.5 day total is the starting line. The trailers have been great and I had been excited to see it. However, those no-good early reviewers arrived and killed off any good buzz (well, it was probably going to happen eventually). It's really disappointing to hear that the movie is not just bad, but awful. I had heard that Hancock had trouble getting a PG-13 rating, and the slim 92 minute running time was worrisome, but a worse RottenTomatoes percent than Men In Black II? The trailers and premise still override all that though and I'll still see Hancock this week (along with probably 20 million other moviegoers).

July 11

Have to wait ten days for any new wide releases.

Hellboy II: The Golden Army
I probably watched bits and pieces of Hellboy, but for the most part, I wasn't interested in the original and didn't think it had much promise. If you had asked me a while ago, I'd have said the sequel should go direct-to-DVD. However, the trailers for the sequel are much more appealing. Given Guillermo del Toro's increased profile and an appealing set of trailers, this might have a shot at opening in the top spot (assuming Hancock takes a big weekly dive).

Journey to the Center of the Earth
This looks awful. A true waste of a movie and everything movie-makers should not do with 3D - namely, use it as a cheap gimmick. If not for 3D, would there be any point in this movie existing? I've heard it's getting 800 theaters to show it in 3D and I guess another 2,000 or so with conventional projection. If you're going to see this movie (I would assume for the free air-conditioning or as a cheap babysitter for kids), might as well find one of those 800 theaters that are showing it in 3D.

Meet Dave
Pressure is off Eddie Murphy after Mike Myers set the bar for summer comedies so incredibly low so it's very unlikely this will be the worst comedy of the year. At least the premise is somewhat straightforward, but it only takes about 30 seconds of watching the trailer to see that this movie will probably be hard to watch. At least, Norbit was incredibly outrageous. It had disgusting gross-out scenes and that seems to be enough for most comedies. Meet Dave looks bad, but more importantly for its box office prospects, bland.

July 18

The Dark Knight
Without a doubt, this is the movie of the summer, especially after Indiana Jones' less than spectacular return (a.k.a. "Nuking the fridge"). I'm trying to be cautious as it'll be very easy to get carried away in the hype. The trailers look great, the early reviews look great, and the box office potential looks close to record-breaking. I'm reluctant to buy into Dark Knight matching or beating Spider-Man 3, even if its pre-sales are way ahead. Lee's penciled-in prediction is at $140 million. It would be the second highest 3-day open ever and over triple Batman Begins' first weekend (it opened on a Wednesday). As the release date comes closer, we'll see if I get swept up in the hype and start pushing Spider-Man 3's record or bust.

Update on July 13 Well, Lee now has $150 million as his rough prediction right now. That would give Spider-Man a run for its money especially if the weekend estimates were a little, say, optimistic. I don't know how The Dark Knight is going to have great legs though. With so much hype, how will there be any follow through after the opening weekend?

Mamma Mia!
Every big summer movie needs its counter programming. I can't say much more than that.

Update on July 13 Overseas box office has been really strong for Mamma Mia. Lee has $30 million and I've seen some other predictions around that level. This could mean incredible overall business for the weekend. If Dark Knight does break the weekend record and Mamma Mia does anywhere close to $30 million, that will be a weekend to remember.

Also, I forgot Space Chimps. It's facing a tough challenge to get attention at the theaters. There's always DVD though.

July 25

Step Brothers
I've heard several people excited for this movie, but the trailer didn't click with me. I'm not a Will Ferrell fan and the concept doesn't seem like it will be able to drive an entire movie. If its moviegoers buy into it, there's little chance Step Brothers or X-Files will open at number one this weekend. Even if Dark Knight disappoints and drops 60%, I still don't see either movie opening over $35 million (my worst case scenario for Dark Knight's second weekend).

The X-Files: I Want to Believe
This movie is a decade too late. I used to watch X-Files regularly (well, at least until Duchovny and Anderson essentially left) and I have little interest in seeing this second movie. I didn't like the way the movie ended or the way the series continued after the movie. From the little I've seen from the trailers, I don't know why all but the most die-hard of fans would want to believe.

July 30

The Rocker
This was set to open in August, but moved up two days for a Wednesday release. I guess the nice way to put it would be that this movie sure has a lot of up and coming talent. They probably saved a lot of budget costs with their shrewd casting choices. I'm thinking: Walk the Line is to Walk Hard as Almost Famous is to The Rocker, and that might be generous.