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May 17 - 19 - Crowd Reports
Avengers: Endgame - Us
Box office comparisons - Review: Justice League (C)
Craig Younkin
Friday Analysis: 'WALL-E' 'Wanted'
By Philip Friedman Published June 28, 2008
I don't see WALL-E declining on Saturday, but if it follows Ratatouille, that would translate to a weekend total of $65 - $67 million while Wanted should emulate Mr. and Mrs. Smith's open with around $50 million.
WALL-E arrived in first place, as expected, with an estimated $23.1 million on Friday. While that doesn't stack up against the Shrek franchise (Shrek 2 opened Wednesday and grossed $28.3M on Friday, Shrek the Third opened Friday with $38.4 million) or The Simpsons ($30.8M), it's the biggest Friday for any Pixar movie, 15% higher than Kung Fu Panda, 5% higher than Ice Age 2.
The big Friday, however, doesn't necessarily translate into an all-time best Pixar weekend total. The current Pixar champ, The Incredibles, opened November 5, 2004 with $20.9 million and had a 43% jump on Saturday. Second biggest Pixar opening movie, Finding Nemo, opened in late May with $20.2 million and had a 39% increase the next day. A November open or even May open is dramatically different from a late June open. Cars opened June 9, 2006 with $19.7 million and increase a modest 18% on Saturday while Ratatouille opened this weekend in 2007 and only got a 3% bounce. I assume this is because almost all schools are out by the last week of June, while few are out in May and basically none in November.
Last weekend, I underestimated the Saturday increase so I'm going to give a wider range this weekend. I don't see WALL-E declining on Saturday, but if it follows Ratatouille, that would translate to a weekend total of $65 - $67 million (2.9 weekend / Fri). A Cars / Kung Fu Panda-type open would mean a weekend of $69 - $70 million (3.0) and Finding Nemo / Incredibles open would be a record-breaking $76 - 81 million (3.3 - 3.5). However, I highly doubt a weekend total much over $67 million and would use the Ratatouille model that yields $66 million.
In second place, Wanted surprised with a better than expected $18.8 million, plenty for second place. That was right in line with the $18.6 million that Mr. and Mrs. Smith opened with in 2005. I had thought that movie was a great comparison at first glance, but the R-rating and lack of Brad Pitt made me second guess myself. Well, the great buzz and strong early previews helped to overcome any of those apparent deficiencies. The Smiths had a 7% increase on Saturday and a weekend total of $50.3 million.
While Wanted matched Smiths' Friday, the weekend total could be more of a challenge. This weekend doesn't have a lot of great comparisons because it is often eaten up by July 4th, forcing movies like Die Hard or Live Free to open on a Wednesday. I have a feeling that Wanted will be more frontloaded, but without much to point to for comparisons, I'll basically bracket The Smiths' weekend and go with a weekend total of $48 - 52 million.
Despite the bump in the road last weekend, the overall box office regained its strength. The top 10 surged 41% from last weekend, 31% versus last year and 42% from 2006. With Hancock and Batman still in store, it looks like this summer will maintain its record pace.
The big Friday, however, doesn't necessarily translate into an all-time best Pixar weekend total. The current Pixar champ, The Incredibles, opened November 5, 2004 with $20.9 million and had a 43% jump on Saturday. Second biggest Pixar opening movie, Finding Nemo, opened in late May with $20.2 million and had a 39% increase the next day. A November open or even May open is dramatically different from a late June open. Cars opened June 9, 2006 with $19.7 million and increase a modest 18% on Saturday while Ratatouille opened this weekend in 2007 and only got a 3% bounce. I assume this is because almost all schools are out by the last week of June, while few are out in May and basically none in November.
Last weekend, I underestimated the Saturday increase so I'm going to give a wider range this weekend. I don't see WALL-E declining on Saturday, but if it follows Ratatouille, that would translate to a weekend total of $65 - $67 million (2.9 weekend / Fri). A Cars / Kung Fu Panda-type open would mean a weekend of $69 - $70 million (3.0) and Finding Nemo / Incredibles open would be a record-breaking $76 - 81 million (3.3 - 3.5). However, I highly doubt a weekend total much over $67 million and would use the Ratatouille model that yields $66 million.
In second place, Wanted surprised with a better than expected $18.8 million, plenty for second place. That was right in line with the $18.6 million that Mr. and Mrs. Smith opened with in 2005. I had thought that movie was a great comparison at first glance, but the R-rating and lack of Brad Pitt made me second guess myself. Well, the great buzz and strong early previews helped to overcome any of those apparent deficiencies. The Smiths had a 7% increase on Saturday and a weekend total of $50.3 million.
While Wanted matched Smiths' Friday, the weekend total could be more of a challenge. This weekend doesn't have a lot of great comparisons because it is often eaten up by July 4th, forcing movies like Die Hard or Live Free to open on a Wednesday. I have a feeling that Wanted will be more frontloaded, but without much to point to for comparisons, I'll basically bracket The Smiths' weekend and go with a weekend total of $48 - 52 million.
Despite the bump in the road last weekend, the overall box office regained its strength. The top 10 surged 41% from last weekend, 31% versus last year and 42% from 2006. With Hancock and Batman still in store, it looks like this summer will maintain its record pace.
'Wall-E' Articles
- Summer Previews: June
June 2, 2008 Here's my initial take on the major US release slated for June 2008. Like last month, I'll add to my analysis as the month progresses. -- Philip Friedman
