Weekend Recap: 'Hulk' Tops

The weekend estimates are in and The Hulk emerged with an estimated $54.5 million, which was more than enough for the top spot at the box office. That is right in line with most of predictions I saw last week. It seemed to be a tight range between $50 and $60 million. I've been surprised with high positive the buzz has been and therefore suspect that this version of the Hulk would have done much better if not for the 2003 attempt.

Regardless, it's an impressive restart that bodes well for the franchise. Batman Begins opened its first weekend with $48.7 million ($72.9 million from its Wednesday release) and almost everyone believes the The Dark Knight will beat that five-day total in one weekend (and the plurality of voters on this site believe $110 million is within sight). I think the Batman franchise is much stronger, so I don't expect to see The Incredible Hulk 2 opening with $100 million, but Marvel seems to have done a great turnaround with this and their other properties in general.

I don't think Hulk is going to match Tony Stark's box office legs. Iron Man is just shy of $300 million and will likely surpass that mark by next Friday, giving it at least a 3.0 total/weekend ratio. That would be really impressive if Hulk could come close to that. The 2003 Hulk managed a meager 2.1 ratio, which Incredible should be able to beat. That would put a floor at around $114.5 million and an optimistic ceiling at $163.5 million. I more pessimistic and think The Incredible Hulk will struggle to match the 2003's total of $132 million.

Kung Fu Panda came in with $34.3 million and managed to steal away second place from The Happening, which dropped off from its strong Friday open. A drop of 43% seems high at first glance for a kids movie, but the opening was really impressive and that's a better hold than last year's Surf's Up (-48%) and slightly stronger than 2006's Cars (-44%). Panda's box office has looked a lot like Cars so I wouldn't be surprised to see Panda match Car's total of $244.1 million. However, it doesn't look like Cars had much competition throughout its run. Panda will face Wall-E in two weekends and that should could into its potential.

For all its flaws, The Happening opened with $30.5 million. Given that it squared off against The Hulk, which most likely has a lot of audience overlap, it's hard to complain. I didn't enjoy the movie, but the budget was lower than his previous movies and this will likely be a commercial success even with a massive drop off next weekend. I'll reaffirm my earlier prediction of a total box office no more than $65 million.

Perhaps an overlooked aspect of the box office has been the incredible building strength. Believe it or not, this was the highest grossing weekend of 2008 ($173.4 million, measured by the top 10). This tops the previous record holder, last weekend with Kung Fu Panda. These aren't all-time records (the weekend of Pirates 2's release in July 2006 topped $207 million), but it's an encouraging sign for the overall box office health.