Friday Analysis: 'Hulk' Returns

The Incredible Hulk returned with an estimated $21 million on Friday, one week shy of the fifth anniversary of the Ang Lee version's open. On June 20, 2003, The Hulk smashed his way to an estimated $24.9 million (finals came in at $24.3 million) and a weekend total of $62.1 million. The conditions were much more favorable than they were this weekend. The Hulk opened alongside Alex and Emma, and Justin to Kelly - counterprogramming box office bombs that didn't compete against Hulk's core audience. Even the top holdover, Finding Nemo, didn't offer much audience overlap. The closest competition was likely 2 Fast 2 Furious, which was entering into its third weekend with just $3.4 million on Friday. This time around, there are many more options competing for box office dollars such as The Happening, which took in an estimated $13 million. Why would the studios release these two head to head and then have two comedies next weekend? Perhaps it wouldn't have made a difference, but conventional wisdoms says there was missed opportunity to optimize the release schedule.

Will The Incredible Hulk fare better than its predecessor? The buzz and reviews seem much healthier for Incredible Hulk and that should allow this version to exceed Hulk's weak longevity of only 2.1 total / weekend. If the 2008 Hulk performs exactly as the 2003 Hulk did, the weekend would come in with $53.7 million. Last year, The Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer opened with $22.0 million on Friday and $58.1 million for the weekend. In 2005, Batman Begins took in $15.7 million on Friday and $43.7 million for the weekend, but it opened on a Wednesday. Using a mix between Silver Surfer and The Hulk, I'd expect around 10% drop on Saturday and a weekend around 2.6 times opening day ($54 - $55 million).

In second place, The Happening managed a bit stronger than expected, but obviously manipulated $13 million. The actual total was $13,131,313.13. I'm guessing that number will change by the time the final grosses are out. Almost all the marketing I've seen for the movie focused on two selling points: It's rated R and it's opening on Friday the 13th.

Not a great sign: I don't think I've ever seen the MPAA grade become a selling point.


The only other movie I remember that attempted a similar strategy was The Omen and that paid off was $12.6 million on the very unconventional Tuesday open. The strategy also proved extremely frontloaded as the movie declined a massive 64% the next day. The Omen's opening Tuesday ended up representing over 23% of its total box office. I don't think The Happening will surfer that degree of frontloading, but combined with the expected poor word of mouth, I expect a large Saturday drop and a 60%+ weekly drop next weekend. In 2004, The Village dropped 14% from Friday to Saturday and 68% in its second weekend. If Happening replicated the Village's weekend pattern, it would gross $32.4 million, but I expect a weekend closer to $30 million and a total box office run of not much more than $65 million.

Kung Fu Panda took a pretty big 51% dive, but it was roughly in line with the drop of last year's Surf's Up and slightly better than Car's drop of 53% in 2005. You Don't Mess With the Zohan dropped an estimated 61% and its now below Chuck and Larry' box office trajectory.