'Indiana Jones 4' Weekend Outlook

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull was shrouded in secrecy, and the ad campaign was put off for a surprisingly long time, which made some Indy fans a little concerned. In February, there was an article in Vanity Fair in which Lucas even admitted that the critics weren’t going to like the movie. At this moment, the film stands at a rather strong 78% rating at Rotten Tomatoes. And the film also enjoyed a good run at the Cannes Film Festival in the last week. And even if the movie ends up disappointing some people for whatever reasons, the buzz and word of mouth on The Phantom Menace was ultimately mixed and the movie still had great box office longevity.

I think the Indiana Jones series is comparable to the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise by the time Dead Man’s Chest ($135.6 million 3-day) came out. I don’t see Indiana Jones matching that 3-day weekend figure, but Indy 4 should still get well over $100 million between Friday and Sunday (it opens on Thursday and has midnights on Wednesday night), and it could reach upwards of $170 - 200 million by Memorial Day Monday night.

The first Pirates reached a fan base that included every age group and grossed $305.4 million domestically, and its play life on DVD was incredible. Indiana Jones could very well have appeal as wide if not wider because its appeal stretches across generational gaps. Kids can see Indy 4 just like teens and adults and seniors can (and adults who were in their 40’s and 50’s when they saw The Last Crusade are now seniors). Indiana Jones is accessible to everyone. Pirates of the Caribbean 2 grossed $423.4 million domestically, only $10 million short of The Phantom Menace, which grossed $431.1 million. Indy fans don’t seem as rabid as Star Wars fans, but a final gross north of $400 million isn’t out of the question. If Indiana Jones does do $170 - 200 million over the 5-days, a $350 million total should be easy.

When the new trailer for Indiana Jones premiered in front of Iron Man, crowds went nuts, which was a great sign considering the previous lack of ads. It confirms that you can’t underestimate the power of the series – the nostalgia runs deep for a lot of people. At first the crowd reactions reminded me of Matrix Reloaded (which grossed $281.5 million domestically) trailer reactions, but Indiana Jones is much friendlier to all age groups in comparison (The Matrix was rated R and Indiana Jones is PG-13), which will broaden its box office potential. $375 - 425 million should be a reasonable sum. The Indiana Jones series is coming back 19 years after the legendary last installment debuted, just like The Phantom Menace came out 16 years after Return of the Jedi.

The three daily comparisons for the 4-day weekend that seem most suitable are Revenge of the Sith, Attack of the Clones, and The Matrix Reloaded. With at least 4,000 theaters on the way for Indy, Sith's 4-day figure translated would be $175.3 million, and $120 million from Friday to Sunday. I'm one step short of that in my forecast with a $110 million 3-day and $135 over 4-days. It could end up being Pirates of the Caribbean 2's 3-day figure in a 4-day time span.

Revenge of the Sith (3,661 theaters)
Wednesday Midnights: $16.9 mil. (2,900 theaters: $5,828 per-screen)
- Wednesday Midnights included in Thurs gross
Thursday: $50.0 mil. ($13,661 per-screen)
Friday: $33.5 mil. ($9,159)
Saturday: $40.7 ($11,115)
Sunday: $34.2 ($9,345)
4-Day: $158.4 ($43,280)

The Matrix Reloaded (3,603 theaters)
Wednesday Midnights: $4.5 mil.
- Wednesday Midnights included in Thurs gross
Thursday: $42.5 ($11,798 per-screen)
Friday: $31.3 ($8,696)
Saturday: $34.4 ($9,545)
Sunday: $26.1 ($7,231)
4-Day: $134.3 ($37,270)

Attack of the Clones (3,161 theaters)
Wednesday Midnights: $6.2
- Wednesday Midnights included in Thurs gross)
Thursday: $30.1 ($9,535 per-screen)
Friday: $24.4 ($7,721)
Saturday: $31.3 ($9,887)
Sunday: $24.4 ($7,709)
4-Day: $110.2 ($34,852)