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Craig Younkin
Friday Analysis for Apr. 18, 2008
By Philip Friedman Published April 19, 2008
Despite the strong reviews, Forgetting Sarah Marshall opened in second place with a decent but nothing-to-get-excited-about $6 million.
In the top spot, Forbidden Kingdom brought in an estimated $7.6 million for the highest per theater average in the top 10. Most predictions had the Chan / Li movie winning the weekend and that looks very likely even if it were to drop on Saturday. Rush Hour 3 dropped 10% from Friday to Saturday finishing the weekend with around 2.6 times its initial Friday estimate; however both Rush Hour sequels were in August so their Sundays benefited from the summer. Jet Li’s War as essentially flat Friday to Saturday and Faithless increased by 23%. The reviews were surprisingly positive (currently at 63% fresh at RottenTomatoes), but even this will likely not lead to great box office longevity after the weekend. If the Friday estimates hold, and Forbidden Kingdom doesn’t suffer a Prom Night-like Sunday collapse, expect a weekend total of around $20 million.
Despite the strong reviews, Forgetting Sarah Marshall opened with a decent but nothing-to-get-excited-about $6 million. Last summer, Knocked Up opened with $9.8 million on Friday ($30.7 million weekend) and 40 Year-Old Virgin finished Friday with $7.3 million ($21.4 million weekend). On the other hand, Apatow was the producer on Drillbit Taylor ($4.1 Friday, $10.3 weekend) and Walk Hard ($1.5 Friday, $4.2 weekend). As Lee mentioned in his outlook, getting a big weekend might not be as critical for Marshall as it is for most new movies. Virgin was able to break $100 million (5.1x total/open), Knocked Up got up to almost $150 million (4.8x total/open) and Superbad cleared $120 million (3.7x total/open). Assuming Sarah Marshall is able to get up $18 million for the weekend, a $90 million total would not be completely out of reach although the movie wouldn’t have the benefit of summer weekdays and this would be the most optimistic of scenarios based on past Apatow movies.
In fourth place, 88 Minutes brought in just $2.3 million, but expectations were pretty low for this Al Pacino release. The movie had actually already made its way around the world over before opening in the US. This was likely to cash in on Pacino’s worldwide appeal before the movie bombed in the US market. Weekend total should be around $6 million.
I was caught off guard with Expelled. I had seen banner ads for it for some time and within the last week quite a few TV ads, but I had assumed a handful of theaters. Seeing over 1,000 theaters was a shock, but the strategy appears to have paid off. The theater average isn’t great, but it beat 88 Minutes and certainly beat other much more limited releases like Where In the World is Osama Bin Laden. A weekend total around $3 million is no Michael Moore documentary, but it’s more than I expected.
While a 64% drop is nothing to be proud of, Prom Night surprised me with it strength. It had completely collapsed after its Friday opening high water mark. It was looking for a drop in the 70% range, but instead it managed the strongest daily percentage uptick in the top 10 (422% increase from Thursday). Street Kings was the only movie in the top 10 to drop at least 70% week-to-week. The top 10 this weekend grossed around $26.8 million, up 17% from 2007, but trailing 2006 by 13%.
Despite the strong reviews, Forgetting Sarah Marshall opened with a decent but nothing-to-get-excited-about $6 million. Last summer, Knocked Up opened with $9.8 million on Friday ($30.7 million weekend) and 40 Year-Old Virgin finished Friday with $7.3 million ($21.4 million weekend). On the other hand, Apatow was the producer on Drillbit Taylor ($4.1 Friday, $10.3 weekend) and Walk Hard ($1.5 Friday, $4.2 weekend). As Lee mentioned in his outlook, getting a big weekend might not be as critical for Marshall as it is for most new movies. Virgin was able to break $100 million (5.1x total/open), Knocked Up got up to almost $150 million (4.8x total/open) and Superbad cleared $120 million (3.7x total/open). Assuming Sarah Marshall is able to get up $18 million for the weekend, a $90 million total would not be completely out of reach although the movie wouldn’t have the benefit of summer weekdays and this would be the most optimistic of scenarios based on past Apatow movies.
In fourth place, 88 Minutes brought in just $2.3 million, but expectations were pretty low for this Al Pacino release. The movie had actually already made its way around the world over before opening in the US. This was likely to cash in on Pacino’s worldwide appeal before the movie bombed in the US market. Weekend total should be around $6 million.
I was caught off guard with Expelled. I had seen banner ads for it for some time and within the last week quite a few TV ads, but I had assumed a handful of theaters. Seeing over 1,000 theaters was a shock, but the strategy appears to have paid off. The theater average isn’t great, but it beat 88 Minutes and certainly beat other much more limited releases like Where In the World is Osama Bin Laden. A weekend total around $3 million is no Michael Moore documentary, but it’s more than I expected.
While a 64% drop is nothing to be proud of, Prom Night surprised me with it strength. It had completely collapsed after its Friday opening high water mark. It was looking for a drop in the 70% range, but instead it managed the strongest daily percentage uptick in the top 10 (422% increase from Thursday). Street Kings was the only movie in the top 10 to drop at least 70% week-to-week. The top 10 this weekend grossed around $26.8 million, up 17% from 2007, but trailing 2006 by 13%.
