Friday Analysis for Apr. 11 2008

Prom Night beat expectations with an estimated Friday gross of $9.6 million. That was ahead of Disturbia ($8.8 million Friday) and When a Stranger Calls ($9.0 million) – the two comparisons I felt most closely resembled Prom Night. Using Disturbia, which opened the same time last year, as a model, Prom Night is heading for a weekend total of around $22-$24 million. I did not think that Prom Night would top $20 million, but I based that on a gut instinct, which doesn’t help when I’m not in the target demographic. According to Deadline Hollywood, Prom Night was the first choice for 47% of females under 25. There’s some hope that Prom Night well have decent legs, as Disturbia managed over $80 million total. However, a more ominous sign is When a Stranger Call’s total of only $47.9 million. This leads me to believe Prom Night will be a one weekend event and end up somewhere in the $50 million range.

Street Kings managed a respectable $4.3 million. If it can manage to hold this or a small increase on Saturday, it’s looking at around $11-$12 million for the weekend. Like horror movies, this genre does not typically have strong legs so it wouldn’t be surprising to see a total box office – when all is said and done – of just $25 million.

The other new release in the top 10, Smart People landed at 7th with an estimated $1.3 million. This is likely in line with most expectations. As I mentioned in the weekend outlook, the release strategy was curious. It’s probably no coincidence that Juno comes out on DVD this Tuesday and this is Miramax chance to lure Juno fans into theaters with a movie that apparently isn’t as good (based merely on Rotten Tomatoes).

As for holdovers, 21 and Nim managed healthy drops of less than 40%. Leatherheads and Ruins clearly didn’t fare as well with pretty ugly drops of around 60%. Despite Prom Night’s strength, the top 10 total was off 10% from the comparable weekend in 2007 (Opened: Distrubia and Perfect Strangers) and a whopping 40% from 2006 (Scary Movie 4 and The Wild). However, given the strange slate of next weekend and the weak comparisons, I believe next weekend will easily beat 2007.