Weekend Outlook: April 11 - 13

Last weekend was disappointing. I don’t think the expectations were very high for Nim’s Island or Leatherheads, but it seemed reasonable that at least one of them would be number one. This weekend will likely continue the trend of lackluster box office. On the upside, 2007’s April had progressively lower box office while 2008’s April should have some stand outs.

I’m not quite as optimistic as Lee about Prom Night. I don’t believe Prom Night will open over $20 million. While the comparisons of Disturbia ($22.2 million) and When a Stranger Calls ($21.6 million) seem reasonable and appropriate, I have a gut feeling that the Prom Night trailer doesn’t connect quite as well as Disturbia or Stranger did. Intellectually, however, those comparisons seem like perfect matches – they’re all remakes aimed towards the teen horror audience and Disturbia even had the same weekend release. On the other hand, there's this clip from the movie:



Needless to say, Prom Night won't be winning any awards for continuity. It also has around 200 fewer theaters than Disturbia and Stranger Calls, but that alone shouldn’t make a significant difference.

Street Kings is interesting simply looking at the cast involved. There’s a little something for everyone. And yet, that doesn’t appear to be enough to match the strong openings of Four Brothers ($21.2 million) or Training Day ($22.6 million). Lee first predicted under $10 million (final prediction is up to $11.2 million), but I’d probably put my money on Street Kings having the best chance of an upside surprise.

What exactly is the thinking behind the release strategy of Smart People? This looks like a classic platform release, yet Miramax is going with the twilight-zone-not-quite-wide release. My first impression is that the movie must be awful and it’s the studio’s only chance to cash in on a post-Juno-wannabe feel-good movie. A check of Rotten Tomatoes lends credibility to that as the movie is currently at only 40% fresh. Without strong reviews and a halfway wide release, Lee’s prediction for that is probably a tad optimistic.