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Craig Younkin
Friday Analysis (Mar. 14 - 16, 2008)
By Philip Friedman Published March 15, 2008
The overall box office showed a nice recovery from last week’s mediocre performance.
Given Friday’s estimated take of $13.2 million, Horton Hears a Who is on track for a total weekend in the mid to high $40 million range. Compare Horton with other big animated non-summer movies:
(opening Friday estimate used where available - 3-day weekend final)
Chicken Little ($10.7 - $40.1),
Happy Feet ($11.6 - $41.5),
Shark Tale ($12.9 - $47.6),
Ice Age ($13.7M - $46.3).
If Horton follows along Shark Tale’s box office, expect a total box office run of between $150 and $170 million.
10,000 B.C. appears to be holding up slightly better than expectations in second place with over $5 million. That would be less than a 60% drop compared with 300, which dropped 64% on its second Friday and 49% on its second Saturday. However, B.C. has a more difficult Saturday comparison as it increased 12% its opening Saturday whereas 300 dropped 12%. Using this as a model, the total weekend would come in around $15 to $16 million.
In third place, Never Back Down did not impress. With an estimated $3.2 million Friday, it is unlikely the movie will crack double digits for its weekend total. Given the weak longevity of this genre and targeted demographics, the movie will likely back down in the low $20 millions.
With some signs of legs, College Road Trip dropped 43% to fourth place, which bodes well if that margin shrinks on Saturday. Doomsday did what most expected and opened weakly in fifth place. It will be lucky to gross $5 million over the weekend.
The overall box office showed a nice recovery from last week’s mediocre performance. The top 10 movies grossed an estimated $30.6 million which was slightly behind last year’s total and well ahead of 2006. With a large Saturday increase expected for Horton, this weekend’s top 10 total should pull ahead of 2007.
(opening Friday estimate used where available - 3-day weekend final)
Chicken Little ($10.7 - $40.1),
Happy Feet ($11.6 - $41.5),
Shark Tale ($12.9 - $47.6),
Ice Age ($13.7M - $46.3).
If Horton follows along Shark Tale’s box office, expect a total box office run of between $150 and $170 million.
10,000 B.C. appears to be holding up slightly better than expectations in second place with over $5 million. That would be less than a 60% drop compared with 300, which dropped 64% on its second Friday and 49% on its second Saturday. However, B.C. has a more difficult Saturday comparison as it increased 12% its opening Saturday whereas 300 dropped 12%. Using this as a model, the total weekend would come in around $15 to $16 million.
In third place, Never Back Down did not impress. With an estimated $3.2 million Friday, it is unlikely the movie will crack double digits for its weekend total. Given the weak longevity of this genre and targeted demographics, the movie will likely back down in the low $20 millions.
With some signs of legs, College Road Trip dropped 43% to fourth place, which bodes well if that margin shrinks on Saturday. Doomsday did what most expected and opened weakly in fifth place. It will be lucky to gross $5 million over the weekend.
The overall box office showed a nice recovery from last week’s mediocre performance. The top 10 movies grossed an estimated $30.6 million which was slightly behind last year’s total and well ahead of 2006. With a large Saturday increase expected for Horton, this weekend’s top 10 total should pull ahead of 2007.
'Horton Hears a Who' Articles
- Weekend Recap: March 14 - 16
March 16, 2008 Horton Hears a Who opened very well with $45.1 million, but within expectations. -- Philip Friedman
