'Borat' Box Office Preview

Borat is a cult comedy (opening on November 3) that has been making waves on the internet since the late spring for its controversial subject matter. Sacha Baron Cohen, the British comedian who created Da Ali G Show on HBO (which Borat is based on) and also starred in Talladega Nights (as the French opponent), plays Borat ? a na?ve Kazakhstan reporter who ventures to the United States to learn about the cultural differences.

In this sketch comedy, Borat interacts with various different people to gain knowledge about America, many of whom he ends of offending without even knowing. Cohen?s approach is not to offend people with Borat?s enthusiastically crude behavior (as he simply speaks his mind); it?s to prove how our differences can lead to ignorance in society (Borat is simply a good-natured fish out of water who yearns to be loved).

Borat has built up buzz on the net (through test screenings and MySpace screenings) as a crude yet uproariously funny movie (attacking gays, Jews, Christians, and just about anyone standing), but Snakes on a Plane proved the internet?s not always a great source to rely on for a box offic breakout. Borat could be in the same realm as the big-screen adaptation of South Park ($11.1 million in three days, $23.1 million in five), the original Ace Ventura ($12.1 million) which launched Jim Carrey, as well as the first Austin Powers ($9.5 million) ? but there is also outside potential for a surprise performance like Elf ($31.1 million), which opened over the same weekend in 2004. Elf is a long shot considering it was rated PG and featured Will Ferrell, whereas Borat pushes the envelope with an R. As seen through the Wedding Crashers/40-Year Old Virgin box office comparison, star-power is important in opening an R-rated comedy, and Cohen?s appeal is nowhere close to the guys in the Frat Pack ? though he might be joining them soon. However, there is a bit of similarity in the posters for Borat and Virgin; at first sight ? for fans of each comedian ? the artwork says a thousand words.

There is a chance Borat could repeat the long-term success of Fox?s Something About Mary, but that also opened in the middle of summer (and Borat also doesn?t have female star-power), which could keep it from reaching a broader audience. Trey Parker and Matt Stone?s political satire, Team America: World Police, is also a decent comparison, which opened in October of 2004 with $12.1 million (and finished with $32.8 million). Borat can also be compared to the first Jackass ($22.8 million) which opened at about the same time as well, and was based on the MTV series.

But because of Borat?s cult sensibility (Johnny Knoxville was a popular figure when Jackass opened, and had an ensemble), its theater count could even be as low as the Bridget Jones sequel, The Edge of Reason, which also had a cult audience (from the first). The (British) romantic comedy debuted in 530 theaters and raked in a huge $16,385 per-screen average for an $8.7 million weekend gross. The sequel went to earn a decent $40.2 million domestically.

Reviews for Borat are excellent so far, but this might be something that catches on with mass audiences over time, which might really help Cohen?s next comedy (like Jim Carrey?s incline in the 90?s). $20 million is possible for an opening just about as much as the teen range is, but the hardcore R-rating and season could keep it from reaching the long-term success of 40-Year-Old Virgin.

'Borat' Box Office Compare >>