Friday Analysis for May 9

No one expected Speed Racer to win on Friday, but most box office observers had it penciled in at second. With an estimated $6.2 million box office that was only good enough for third place, Speed Racer is on course to miss expectations. Its savings grace might be the PG rating. Normally, I'd look towards another second-week-of-May disappointment like Poseidon, which opened with 3.0 times its Friday box office ($7.4 million Friday, $22.2 million weekend). Using this as a model, Speed Racer would fail to break $19 million. However, if it is more like Spy Kids (given the rating and similar use of CGI), the weekend outlooks is bit stronger. Spy Kids opened with $6.8 million on Friday and finished the weekend with $26.5 million -- a very healthy 3.9 multiplier - something I don't think Speed Racer can match. I'd set low end of the range at just under $20 million. This would be an even bigger disappointment and demonstrate that the movie wasn't attracting the family audience. $24 million would be the high end of the range and would show that Speed Racer is definitely a family movie and this would bode much better than for the long term prospects. We'll find out tomorrow where Speed Racer will land, but regardless, even the high end represents a disappointment. Was it a surprise? I don't think so. I haven't seen it but I've been quite critical based on the trailers and previews. To be fair, movies like 2001 and Tron were box office and critical flops at release, but later became classics that greatly influenced subsequent movies. I don't think that will be the case, but it's possible.

Still in the number one spot, Iron Man took in a healthy $15.3 million. There are a lot of movie comparisons you could use for Iron Man, but I'm partial to Spider-Man 3. Spider-Man 3 likely represents a low-end range for Iron Man in terms of box office longevity. Iron Man held up much better during the weekdays, finishing Thursday with a gross just 10% less than Spider-Man 3 ($5.3 million vs. $5.9 million) despite having an opening weekend 35% lower ($98.6 million vs. $151.1 million). Even if you included the Thursday previews with last Friday, Iron Man's Friday-to-Friday drop is only a little over 60% compared with Spider-Man 3's massive 71% drop. I think this will ensure Iron Man a total at least in the mid $200 million range.

In second place, What Happens in Vegas… opened with an okay $7.2 million, which is about in line with expectations. At first glance, I had thought that Vegas would easily maintain its lead through Sunday. When it's action-sci-fi anime-remake vs. romantic comedy, the latter usually has a better Saturday. However, as I remarked above, the PG rating might give Speed Racers the edge on the weekend, although it will likely hurt its weekday prospects as many schools are still in session. Monster-In-Law opened on Friday with a tad under $8.0 million and finished the weekend with $23.1 million (2.9 multiplier). Georgia Rule opened with just $1.9 million, but had a remarkable Saturday and Sunday increase that resulted in a weekend total of $6.8 million (3.6 multiplier). Vegas isn't likely to come close to Georgia Rule in terms of multiplier as that likely reached a much older demographic. Look for Vegas to finish the weekend with around $20.5 million.

Although Speed Racer is a disappointment, the overall box office looks excellent. The top 10 grossed an estimated $36.5 million, which is up 27% from 2007 and up 48% from 2006. Yes, ticket prices are higher, but not that much higher. More people went to the movies. Next weekend brings the second book of Narnia. It'll be an uphill struggle to keep up with 2007's pace as Narnia will likely not be able to match 2007's Shrek 3 ($38.4 million on Friday, $47.1 million on Saturday).